Lake Norman Real Estate’s January 2010 Sales Analysis

 

Lake Norman’s January 2010 Single Family Housing Statistics

 

 

After preparing Lake Norman’s December 2009 Sales Analysis I was feeling pretty optimistic about our short-term Lake Norman home sales.  With high numbers of conditional and pending sales at year’s end, it looked to me as if we would close about 60 sales this past month.  While we did exceed the abysmal 28 homes sold in January 2009 ourJanuary 2010 numbers are actually very disappointing.

  • Active Listings dropped 15%.  While any drop in inventory is good news in this market, our inventory actually increase by over 7% from December’s low of 1161.  One of the worst scenarios for our Lake Norman housing market would be an increase in inventory.  Right now, based upon our January sales, we are back up to a 25.4 month supply of active listings.  Remember that 6-8 months of supply is considered a balanced housing market.

 

  • Contingent Sales plumetted by 81% compared to the 16 in January of 2009.  These are the homes under contract that are contingent upon the buyer’s home selling.  Clearly, Lake Norman sellers are much  less willing to accept contingent offers than they were last year. 

 

  • Conditional Sales increased 129%!  These are homes that  just went under contract and still have financial and inspection conditions. Homebuyers were definitely out looking and buying in January. I know that I showed property all month to both local and out-of-state buyers…even in the snow!

 

  • Pending sales had a very slight increase of 4%.    These are the contracts that are past inspections and are just waiting to close.  So, while we experienced a significant increase in newly opened sales contracts, our pending sales would indicate that our February Lake Norman home sales will be about the same as February 2009.  After 4 consecutive months of healthy sales increases compared to the prior year, will our sales flatten out next month?

 

  • The number of closed sales increased by 75% compared to January 2009.  This means that we have had sales increases compared to the prior year for four consecutive months.  I would feel more like celebrating if we were up against better numbers but since January 2009 was so low 49 is actually the third lowest month of sales in Lake Norman for the past 5+ years. Our absorption rate (number of months of inventory of homes for sale) jumped back up to a 25-month supply.  Remember that 6-8 months of inventory reflects a balanced market.  

 

  • It is important to note that our average sales price dropped 18% compared to January 2009 to only $375,027.

 

6-Year Comparison of Lake Norman Home Sales By Month

 

* Please note that all of my numbers come from the Charlotte Region Multiple Listing Service and will not include sales that took place outside of our MLS.

**I have made an adjustment of  the totals reflecting the ACTUAL  sales  every month in 2009 and the totals in the prior calendar year.  The columns may not add up but I do my best with what I have to work with!

Summary

While one might celebrate our 49 sales this past month, if you look at the history of January sales in our Lake Norman market, you will quickly see that our sales were well below even January 2008 numbers.  After 4 consecutive months of sales increases, will we see this trend end this month?  My prediction is that they will be just about equal to February 2009.  We certainly aren’t out of the woods yet.  Keep looking for a decrease in our months of inventory until we get down to that magic 6-8 months.  That will be the first substantial indication that our Lake Norman housing market is turning around.

Related Articles

Lake Norman Real Estate’s Waterfront Home Sales Analysis December 2009

Lake Norman Real Estate: Are Foreclosures Driving Our Market?

Lake Norman Real Estate:  Why is it so hard to buy a home right now?

Lake Norman Relocation Resources 

Lake Norman, Our Inland Sea

Posted in For Buyers, For Sellers, Lake Norman Real Estate, Market Reports, Mooresville Real Estate | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

How have recent storms impacted Lake Noman’s water levels?

 

 

If you live in a waterfront home, you will have noticed that our Lake Norman water levels have been fluctuating quite a bit more than usual this past month!  On January 26th the water levels peaked at 99.2 which is as close to “full pond” as I have seen over the past 5 years.  Today, February 1, the levels are back down to 97.1 which is about normal for our summer months.  However, the “target” level that Duke Energy has established for Lake Norman for today is only 94.0.  See: Duke Energy Website.  (I took this photo yesterday and as you can see our water levels look beautiful.)

The good news is that Duke Energy has the capability of adjusting our water levels along with all 12 lakes that are part of the Catawba River power system.  They purposely lower Lake Norman’s water levels seasonally to allow for the kinds of storms we have had recently.  It is very rare for our levels to exceed 100 or “full pond” so most waterfront homes will notice fluctuations but don’t have to worry about flooding.  This past week Duke Energy brought our water levels back down two feet and never allowed them to reach 100.

However, if your property is in a flood-prone area, whether on Lake Norman or anywhere around Lake Norman, then you should monitor Duke Energy’s website for updates like this one for today:

ACTIVE
Last Update: 2/1/2010 9:19:06 AM
Over the next week to fourteen days, multiple winter weather and/or rain events are forecast for areas throughout the Catawba-Wateree River Basin. As a result, we expect lake levels to remain high, with a high probability for flooding to occur in low-lying and flood-prone areas. As always, we encourage those living along lakes, streams and other low-lying and flood-prone areas to pay special attention to changing weather conditions and take any necessary precautions. We will provide additional updates if conditions change.

Important note to Lake Norman area homebuyers:    Be sure to find out if your potential home is in a flood zone.  You will receive “State of North Carolina Residential Property Disclosure Statement” . # 20 on this disclosure asks the seller if they know if the property has experienced a ”Flood Hazard or that the property is in a FEDERALLY-DESIGNATED FLOOD PLAIN”. 

The bottom line for most of us is that when we do have abundant rains, the lake is more beautiful than ever!

RELATED ARTICLES

Lake Norman Real Estate:  Lake Norman “Flooding Not Likely”

Lake Norman, Our Inland Sea 

Lake Norman Relocation Resources 

Posted in Lake Norman Real Estate | Leave a comment

Lake Norman Real Estate’s February 2010 Wallpaper Calendar is Here!

 

 

So, what in the world does a curious Red-Eyed Frog have to do with Lake Norman?  Honestly?  Absolutely nothing…I just thought he was cute! 

I actually sent three photos to my web designer:  One was some roses for Valentines’ Day, one was a beautiful photo of a rock formation in Canada signifying the upcoming Winter Olympics and finally this little frog.  I guess cute won out over relevancy.  Considering the current economic struggles it isn’t such a bad thing to have a little fun.

I promise to return to Lake Norman photos next month but I hope at least some of you will enjoy my frog!  

To make your desktop calendar, go to the round button at the top of this site’s home page entitled: “Lake Norman Calendar”.  Click on this button and up will come an image of my Lake Norman photo wallpaper calender for February 2010.  All you have to do is right click and select “set as background”. 

 

While I have great fun taking pictures of Lake Norman, I would love to use one of your favorite photos depicting life here in Lake Norman!. If you’d like to submit a photo for a future calendar, please send it to… 

 

 

Articles of Interest

Lake Norman Real Estate:  What are “Seasonal” waterviews?

Lake Norman NC has Snow Skiing too!

Lake Norman Real Estate’s Business of the Week:  Think Green Recycling

Lake Norman Real Estate: How YOU can search for Lake Norman’s ”distressed properties”!

Posted in Just for fun in Lake Norman, LKN Realty LLC, Lake Norman Real Estate, miscellaneous | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Lake Norman Real Estate: Are Foreclosures Driving Our Current Market?

We are bombarded by national and regional housing statistics and prognostications in the news practically every day.  Even our Charlotte Regional Real Estate Association provides monthly data by our Charlotte Mulitple Lisitng Service’s defined areas including Lake Norman.  However, none of these resources provide specific numbers that enable us to get a grasp on how big a role distressed properties like foreclosures and short sales are playing in our local housing sales today. 

 I decided to analyze just the sales month-to-date for this month, January 2010, by reading each sold listing’s individual MLS  listing information and remarks to figure out the actual category in which to place each sale.  So far 40 homes have been reported as sold this month.  I broke down these sales into four categories:

 

Type of Sale 

  • Foreclosures:  There were 12 bank-owned properties that sold representing 30% of our total sales this month.
  • Shortsales:  3 sales indicated in the remarks that they were short sales representing 7.5% of our total.
  • Bargains/Sell below tax values: 16 properties sold below their assessed tax values, in some cased substantially below.  These represent 40% of the total sales.
  • Regular Sales/Sales above tax values: A total of 9 properties sold at or above the assessed tax values.  It is impossible to know from the MLS data if any of these were distressed but there was no indication that they were in their remarks. These represent 22.5% of our total sales this month.

 

Sales by Price Range 

  • Up to $250,000:   17   or     42.5%
  • $251,000 – $500,000:   15   or    37.5%
  • $500,000+ :    8   or      20%

 

Lake Norman Area 

  • Iredell County/Mooresville:   24   or   60%
  • Mecklenburg County/Cornelius % Huntersville:     6   or    15%
  • Lincoln County/Denver:     8    or    20%
  • Catawba County/Sherrills Ford:     2    or      5%

 

Summary

  • This past month approximately 4 out of every 5 sales were distressed in some way.  Slightly over one third were foreclosures and shortsales and another 40% sold well below their assessed tax values.  There is no doubt that bargains are what are driving our Lake Norman home sales right now just as they have for quite some time.
  • 42.5% of all of our January sales were $250,000 or less and 80% were $500,000 or less.
  • 60% of our sales were in the greater Mooresville area in Iredell County. The second most active area was Denver.  It is interesting to see how few homes sold in Cornelius, Huntersville and Sherrills Ford.

 As I have written before, there are truly two different kinds of active listings in our Lake Norman area.  There is the group of distressed properties that are listed well below the historic highs and  then there are the majority of active listings that are priced at levels more appropriate for two years or more ago. 

There is a great disparity growing between the prices of properties that have sold in specific neighborhood or community and the current active listings that are not yet distressed sales. I have found this in such neighborhoods as The Point, The Harbour, Bay Crossing.  The disparity can be as much as $50 per square foot!  Serious buyers know the recent low sales numbers so get frustrated when they view comparable active listings that are priced significantly higher. 

The million dollar question is what is going to happen to all of our active listings that are over priced?  Are they too headed for foreclosure or will the sellers simply wait out the market?

Posted in For Buyers, For Sellers, Lake Norman Real Estate, Market Reports, Mooresville Real Estate, My Real Estate Experiences | Tagged , , | 4 Comments

Lake Norman Real Estate Predictions for 2010

 

Truthfully,  2009 was a pretty easy year to predict real estate trends in our Lake Norman area. (See my 2009 predictions).  Prices came down, foreclosures and short sales dominated our market, new construction ground to a screeching halt putting many of our local builders out of business, and lenders made everyones’  lives extremely difficult. Yes, it was a tough year for home sellers and home buyers.

However, looking forward in 2010 I am not seeing a lot of black and white but rather a medium shade of grey. 

For our Lake Norman real estate market 2010 will be a turning point.  The question is, how bumpy will the road be, how far down the road will we hit the turn, and will it be a gentle, hardly discernable curve or a pronounced change in direction?

 

The Big Picture:

To a certain degree, our Lake Norman housing market’s ability to begin to stabilize will depend on the national financial policy makers.  Our national financial uncertainly makes it extremely difficult to make solid predictions for our local market.  Here are some of the major issues that will play a significant role in our housing market this year:

  • At the end of march, the Federal Reserve will end its $1.25 Trillion program backing the mortgage market and helping to keep interest rates low.
  • FHA is currently working on legislation to tighten their underwriting standards although progress is being made to modify and soften their original requests.  This tightening was initiated by a need for capital reserves due to losses FHA has absorbed since the recession began.
  • Only a modest rebound in housing starts is expected.  Builders who have survived are still finding it nearly impossible to get loans for new projects and spec building is almost not existent.
  • The homebuyer tax credits will end April 30th – June 30th. 
  • There is expected to be another wave of  resets of adjustable and interest only loans, especially on jumbo loans, which means sharply higher monthly payments for those homeowners.  This may trigger another wave of shortsales and/or foreclosures.

 

Regionally:

Our Lake Norman housing market is also going to be impacted significantly by regional economic components, especially jobs. 

  • North Carolina’s population growth was the third highest in the US  according to the Charlotte Business Journal.  Lake Norman is still a destination for people throughout the US.  While many of my out-of-state buyers have had to delay their moves here, very few have actually canceled them.

 

  • Jobs play a huge role in our recovery.  The jobless rate in North Carolina started to lessen in November however unemployment rates in Mecklenburg and Iredell Counties remain higher than the state average.  North Carolina pundits seem very mixed in their economic vision of 2010 but they do seem to agree that unemployment has peaked and that we will see improvement by the end of 2010 if not sooner.  But everyone agrees that we must see job improvement before we see any significant change in our housing market. 

 

My Predictions:

  • Bargains will continue to drive the market.  More and more homebuyers who have been sitting on the fence will realized that these bargains, once gone, won’t necessarily be replaced so they will be more confident and motivated in 2010. 
  • A year of  foreclosures and short sales.  Sellers who have been hoping to sell at a price that allows them to at least break even are going to run out of time. We will continue to see active listings slowly evolving into short sales or foreclosures. 
  • Shadow Inventory?  One of the biggest questions I have is just how many Lake Norman homeowners are either waiting to sell until they see a turn in the market or have withdrawn their homes from the market (which accounts for our drop in inventory) while planning to bring them back on the market once they see signs of improvement.  If, just when our inventory of homes gets down to a good number (6-8 months of supply), a large number of sellers who have been waiting  jump into the market, then we will again face high levels of inventory and a second round of a buyers market.
  • A year of stabilization more than recovery is what most everyone is saying throughout the country.  Personally, I don’t think it will be an exciting year with significant changes but rather a slow, methodical road towards recovery.  2010 may hold some surprises but for the most part it will be a year of righting the ship and preparing to sail slowing forward in 2011.

I would love to hear your thoughts and predictions. Please leave a comment!

 

Related Articles

 Lake Norman Real Estate’s Fourth Quarter 2009 Sales Analysis

Lake Norman Real Estate’s Fourth Quarter Sales Analysis 2008 

 Lake Norman Real Estate:  Why is it so hard to buy a home right now?

Lake Norman, Our Inland Sea 

Lake Norman Relocation Resources 

Posted in For Buyers, For Sellers, Lake Norman News, Lake Norman Real Estate, Mooresville Real Estate, Real Estate Financing, Real Estate News | Tagged , , , | 5 Comments