Here are the April 2012 numbers from our Charlotte Multiple Listing Service for our Lake Norman Area 13 real estate market:

IMPORTANT UPDATE!  As of today, 5/16/2012 we have now closed 90 sales in April which is 6 higher than this report and 6 higher (7%) than April 2011!

Some significant additional interesting statistics for you:

• “Distressed sales” ( Foreclosures (REOS), defaults, Short Sales) comprised only 16.67 % of our closed sales in March down from 27.7 % last month, 21% in February,  31% in January,  36.7% in December, 36% in November, 19.8% in October, 10% in September, 16.8 in August,  18.5%  in July,  25% in June and 27% in May 2011. The US average is 24%. The price range of these distressed sales was $75,000 – $1,270,000.  Our percentage of distressed active listings increased slightly to 8% from 6.2 %. Our number of distressed properties remains very low which is very encouraging.  We are not being bombarded by foreclosures and shortsales so far in 2012 as some had predicted.
• 40% of our closed sales were waterfront homes which is slightly higher than March’s 31%.
• 43% of Lake Norman’s April home sales were under  $400,000.
• 49 % of our April sales were under $500,000  compared to 61% in March sales and 70% in April. Higher price ranges are selling too.
• Our average prices are up for closed and conditional sales and DOWN for our active listings.
• As of today, the number of active listings for all of Lake Norman totaled 950 up from 861 on March 1st but still 20% below April 2011.  To put this number in even greater context, back in June of 2008 we had 1789 active listings.

A closer look:

• The number of Active Listings in Lake Norman increased 9% from last month but are 20% lower than last April. 2011 While our number of active listings is increasing as one would expect in preparation for our strongest seasonal sales market they still remain low. Our absorption rate/months of supply of active listings stands at 11.3%.  Our shrinking inventory and rising sales are getting us closer to a balanced 6-8 months of supply in Lake Norman area (MLS area 13).  This is good news for the long-term health of our Lake Norman housing market.

• Contingent Sales, (sales contracts that are contingent upon the buyer selling their own home) which don’t account for a significant segment of our housing market, have actually been on an upswing.  This could be because sellers are more willing to take a risk or more buyers have homes already under contract before they put in an offer.

• Conditional Sales increased for the fourth month in a row, this time by a whopping 79%!  This is HUGE! After a slight lull the upward momentum of our Lake Norman housing market is impressive to say the least.  These are homes that just went under contract and still have financial and inspection conditions. They represent future closed sales most likely in late May/June. Based upon these numbers our closed sales this month should exceed last month’s and have a chance to be our best May/June /July since 2007.  Great short term numbers for Lake Norman!

• Pending sales were up slightly compared to April 2011 and last month.    These are the contracts that are past inspections and are just waiting to close.  Pending sales are usually the best indication of closed sales in the next few weeks.

• The number of closed home sales in Lake Norman in April will be just a bit higher than April 2012 when all the numbers are in but they weren’t too impressive compared to past April’s.  (See the annual chart below).

The total number of Lake Norman homes under contract (but not yet closed) on the first of each month are as follows:

• May 7, 2012: 246 (Wow, a new record again!)
• April 1, 2012: 227
• March 1, 2012: 178
• February 1, 2012: 155
• January 1: 134 (the lowest ALL year)
• December 1: 147
• November: 169
• October: 193
• September: 183
• August: 193
• July: 178
• June: 199,
• May:  173
• April 195,
• March: 163
• February: 142

We are clearly seeing a marked upward trend after a lag at the end of 2011.  This uptick in sales coupled with our low inventory bode well for the overall health of the Lake Norman housing market.

Here is a breakdown by price-range of our April 2012 closed sales in Lake Norman’s area 13-1 to 13-5:

• $75,000 – $199,999:  11
• $200,000 – $299,999: 12
• $300,000 – $399,999: 13

(These price ranges represented 42.8% of  April sales compared to 43% of March sales )

• 400,000 – $499,999:  6
• $500,000 – $599,999: 12

(These price ranges represented 21.4% compared to 26.5% last month)

• $600,000 – $699,999:  11
• $700,000 – $799,999: 3
• $800,000 – $899,999: 2
• 900,000 – $999,999:  4

(Solds for $600,000 – $1mill = 23.8% compared to 19% last month)

• $1,000,000 – $1,999,999: 9
• $2 million+ : 1

(Solds $1million+ = 11.9 % compared to 10.8% last month)

8-Year Comparison of Lake Norman Home Sales By Month

* Please note that all of my numbers are for single family homes. They come from the Charlotte Region Multiple Listing Service and will not include sales that took place outside of our MLS.

**I have made an adjustment of  the totals reflecting the ACTUAL  sales  every month in 2009, 2010 and the totals in the prior calendar years.  The columns may not add up but I do my best with what I have to work!  I also adjust past months when I do the monthly update as a few more sales are usually input late by agents.

Summary and My Insight

The Positives and the Negatives:

Good signs:

• Sales year to date are up 9.37% over 2011
• Inventory of homes for sale remains low
• Significantly increasing conditional sales indicate that our Lake Norman housing market has strong momentum which will be reflected in higher closed sales for at least the next two months.
• The number of distressed homes for sale are a small percentage of our total inventory and sales
• Sales of homes over $499,000 are improving.  This past month the $500,000 – $699,000 price range was particularly strong.
• When properties are priced about right they are getting quite a few showings.  I am getting more calls directly from buyers regarding my own listings. There is a marked uptick in the number of buyers out looking.
• We are seeing more and more new construction popping up (Not spec homes)
• Interest rates are at all time lows…3.84% for a 30-year fixed this morning!
• I have a stack of positive articles about the US housing market from:  USA Today, Inman News, Real Trends, JP Morgan CEO in CNBC article, National Association of Realtors, Freddie Mac’s Economic Outlook Report, Bank of America and Merrill Lynch forecasts, Zillow.com and Wall Street Daily.
• Positive articles about Charlotte including that we are ranked as one of the 10 fastest growing U.S. Cities according the CNN Money (US Census Bureau), and 53rd in First American’s Improving Market Index
• Donald Trump closed on his purchase of The Point Golf and Tennis Club and is infusing cash into renovations and upgrade now named the Trump National Golf Club, Charlotte.

Challenges/Weakesses:

• Sales prices remain low and I don’t see any signs of them going up. Rather, properties are selling once they are priced low enough to attract offers and then they may even get multiple offers.
• With a shrinking inventory of active listings, buyers have fewer options
• Home loans, especially construction loans, are still a very challenging process.
• New: Homeowner’s Insurance is harder to get due to new stricter guidelines
• Global economic turmoil and US economic uncertainty

As I wrote last month:

I am more convinced than ever that our Lake Norman housing market has hit its bottom in terms of annual sales volume.  However, this has not translated to higher sales prices. Prices are low and buyers continue to be very picky; not willing to pay a higher price than past comparable sales.

The gossip among Realtors is how dramatically our activity has increased.  Despite low inventories, the number of buyers out actively looking has increased substantially.  Real estate firms are touting their sales increases and talk as if we are going to sustain these strong numbers. I am a bit more cautious.  While the worst is most likely behind us, we have a long way to go and most expect that it will be a very slow recovery.

My advice to Lake Norman home buyers remains this: Look for homes that are in good locations and have most of the priorities on your list.  While your perfect home might come along, don’t wait too long and don’t dismiss a property if it isn’t perfect.  Prioritize: Location, quality and depth of water (if waterfront buyer) and floorplan. Then, to determine a realistic price, use VERY RECENT comparable sales in your specific market niche.  The selection may not be great but with interest rates at all time lows and prices low it is a good time to buy.  With only 8% of Lake Norman’s current listings being “distressed sales” don’t expect the perfect foreclosure or shortsale to come along at an unrealistic price.  If you insist on low-balling, at least have some comparable sales to justify your number.  Don’t focus as much on the price as on the future marketability of the property.  A bargain that has incurable issues that will make it difficult to resale, really isn’t a bargain at all.  Be smart!

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Relocating to Lake Norman

For the 6th time in 8 years, Mooresville-Statesville was named top Microplitan area by Site Magazine thanks to nearly doubling the number of economic development projects in 2011!  And, Governor Perdue recently announced that our state of North Carolina has risen to 4th place for states based upon the number of new and expanded corporate facilities also by Site Magazine.  Both local and state officials say that these awards are evidence of our business-friendly climate.

More evidence of the health of our future ecomony came from a recent Penkse Truck Rental press release that ranked Charlotte in the top 10 of one-way truck rental destinations in the US.

Now, if this isn’t enough evidence of our strong local ecomonic future, guess what “The Donald” said about the Lake Norman area when interviewed recently about his interest in buying The Point Lake and Golf Club  and asked why he targeted the Lake Norman area?

“North Carolina and the Lake Norman Market in particular are a much safer investment than some of the higher-profile resort locations teeming with speculative and unproven markets” according to a recent Business Today article entitled: Trump says Lake Norman market is big draw….Market ‘stable, well occupied’. 

In fact, while in town for his meeting this week with members of The Point Lake and Golf Club in Mooresville, Trump went on to say to the Charlotte Observer:

“We love this piece of land, the lake, the tremendous lake…The views from the (golf) course are magnificent…I think Charlotte has a great future.  I think the whole area is great.  The people, the energy.  That’s why we’re going to be doing this deal…I think we can bring that course to the next level…It will be a magical place.”

Now who am I to question “The Donald”?  Of course, I already think that Lake Norman is a magical place.

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 New Exit 35

When I first started writing this blog in 2007 I used to do regular updates on growth and development in the greater Lake Norman area as did The Charlotte Observer who had a bi-weekly Red Dirt Alert section for Lake Norman. Since the slow down, when most developing simply screeched to a halt, I have provided updates every now and then about the status of major and small developments.  Today I am happy to report there is quite a bit more “red dirt” to be seen around Lake Norman including new housing construction!

As I write this, there are 54 Active Listings in Area 13/ Lake Norman of new homes built in or due to be completed in 2012. New homes are going up in The Farms, The Point, The Peninsula, Pointe Regatta, Sailview, Westport, Pebble Bay, Fernleaf/Woodleaft and more!

Here is an update on some of the larger projects:

• Substantial grading is going on at Phase 1 of Langtree  at the Lake at Exit 31
• Construction is well under way on the luxury apartments in the Mooresville Town Square: Fountains Town Square
• Mattamy Homes’ at Waterlynn are building
• Work has been started at The Legacy Cornelius along Westmoreland Road after years of waiting.  The multi-family units are expected to be completed this year

Above is an aerial photo of Antiquity in Cornelius which has been marked by the developer.  According to an article in CorneliusNew.net “Five years later, steady progress in Antiquity” there are now 208 households living on the 130-acre site.  The current plan has been modified from its original 1,000 units to 413 for-purchase residential units plus 94 rental apartments.  The developers are now planning for the commercial and business core of the site to have condominiums above first-floor shops, stores and offices which will be built in phases.

When my husband and I first moved to Lake Norman in 2005 we thought the amount of construction in the entire Lake Norman area was almost out of control so  perhaps the slowdown did help the future of Lake Norman by making developers smarter and our towns more thoughtful about what they approve.  It is very nice to see our red dirt again!

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Lake Norman Real Estate’s Business of the Week: La Patisserie Cafe and Bakery

 *Compiled from the Charlotte Regional Multiple Listing Service’s data, this chart enables you to focus on your specific price range(s) rather than use the broad-brush approach thus allowing you to size up your competition and better position yourself.

How to read this report:

• First choose a price range.
• The next column provides the actual number of listings sold in this price range in the  4th quarter of 2011
• This is followed by the percentage this price range represents of the total number of listings sold
• Next is the number of active listings in this price range
• This is followed by the percentage this price range represents of the total number of active listings
• Finally, the last column represent the absorption rate or the number of months of supply for each price range based upon the number of listings divided by the number of sales.

Some Findings:

• Sales of Lake Norman homes when compared with the amount of inventory remain strongest in the lowest price ranges.  The $0 – $399,999 price range represented 62% of Lake Norman home sales and only 40% of the active listings. Properties up to $399,999 currently have an absorption rate of 6.3 month which is a perfectly balanced housing market!
• The second strongest price range this past 3 months was $900,000- $999,999 which represented 2.94% of Lake Norman home sales AND 2.68% of our active listings with 10.5 months of inventory.
• Our weakest price ranges in the past 3 months were the $500,000?s, $800,000?s and homes over $1,000,000.
• 9.66% of our home sales were at or above  $800,000 compared to 12.92%  last quarter and 14.3% in the 2nd quarter of 2011.  We had 1 closed sale over $2 million this quarter compared to 7 in the 3rd quarter, 6 in the 2nd quarter and only 1 in the 1st quarter. Our luxury housing market certainly slowed down in the fourth quarter and seems to do best in the spring and summer.
• Our overall Months of Supply dropped slightly to a respectable 11.5 due in large part to our shrinking inventory of homes for sale. To put this year in perspective, in the 4th quarter of 2009 we had a staggering 46.4 months of supply of homes for sale in Lake Norman!

As a buyer, the chart above will show you where you might face the stiffest competition and at what price ranges you might see opportunities.  As a seller, you can look at the Lake Norman real estate market’s activity by price range and if you are right on the cusp of, for example, a $500,000 listing price, it would clearly be prudent to price your home in the high $400,000’s  where there were nearly twice as many properties sold (and more buyers) and comparatively less competition.

Just for fun, I also created a sales chart by price range for the past year:

Please note that in all of the price range charts I am actually using data from the 15th of the month so these numbers won’t match perfectly with the monthly or annual sales numbers I provide.

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