On June 10th, 2009 we got some stunning news regarding our Lake Norman real estate market.  Mega developer Crescent Resources LLC announced that they had filed for Chapter 11.  Crescent Resources, a joint venture between Duke Energy and Morgan Stanley Real Estate Fund, has been responsible for creating and developing Lake Norman’s most prestigious and popular communities including The Point, The Peninsula, The Harbour at The Pointe, The Farms, Sailview,Northview Harbour and their latest venture Falls Cove.

It wasn’t until July 15th 2010 that Crescent Communities broke their silence and sent out a news alert to Realtors announcing that they had emerged from their Chapter 11 Bankruptcy on June 9, 2010, touting their still developing communities of The Point and The Farms and announcing some interesting changes and news regarding their struggling, newest venture, Falls Cove located north of Mooresville.

With the exception of Falls Cove, I am constantly showing property in all of the Crescent Communities.  For buyers looking for upscale communities with great amenities the Crescent communities are some of the best available on Lake Norman on both the east and west sides of the lake.

I decided to do a side-by-side comparison of these 7 communities’ sales and homes on the market as of today, August 26, 2010 to see if the numbers reflect my own experiences:

* All of these numbers are from the Charlotte Regional Multiple Listing Services

** These numbers include waterfront and non-waterfront listings

Active Listings/Months of Supply: If you look at the months of supply, you can see that The Farms and The Harbour at The Pointe are slightly out performing the others. However, considering that The Point and The Peninsula have many $1 million plus waterfront homes, they are actually doing quite well and all four of these communities are out-performing our overall Lake Norman real estate market.  What is worrisome to see are the months of inventory of Northview Harbour and to a lesser degree Sailview and Falls Cove.

Closed Sales Year-To-Date 2010:  Again, Northview Harbour stands out (in a bad way) with only 2 closed sales in the past 8 months.  From my perspective, Mooresville leads the Lake Norman sales activity in general these days which is reflected by the sales in The Point, The Harbour at the Pointe and The Farms.  Popular schools, low taxes, an ever growing supply of restaurants, shopping and services and the light at the end of the tunnel for the widening of Brawley School Rd. all contribute to this trend.  Sailview, which is in Denver on the southwest side of Lake Norman, is still a popular location because of its convience to Charlotte and the newly completed Hwy 16.  That leaves Sherrills Ford kind of hanging in the wind.  Located on the northwest side of Lake Norman, it is farther from shopping and amenities and doesn’t seem to have the draw the other communities have.  It is best suited as a second home or for those empty-nesters who want to get away from it all.

Days on Market (DOM): Despite being a slightly older community, The Harbour has consistently out-performed most Lake Norman communities even before the recession.  Today their numbers support the fact that this is simply a great community in which to live.  On the other extreme, Falls Cove, which has barely begun to be developed, has suffered the most during this recession.  The higher numbers in the most upscale communities of The Point and The Peninsula are partially a function of the number of very high-end waterfront estates which tend to take substantially longer to sell.

% Listing Price to Selling Price: What is most interesting about all of these numbers is that the lowest is still very high at 93%.  In our Lake Norman housing market, we see less of the low-ball sales than I have observed in other parts of the country.  Here, overpriced listings will sit until they are reduced to near market value before selling. Only well-priced listings are selling because buyers are so nervous about over paying in this market.  It is rare to see a sale that isn’t a “bargain” or at least perceived as a good value.

$ Per Square Foot:  I actually just included these numbers as an FYI.  Because The Point and The Peninsula have recently had some $3 million+ sales,  and more $1million + sales their numbers are skewed when compared to the rest.

This is simply a general overview.  When considering buying or selling, I highly recommend that your Realtor do a more fine-tuned market analysis focusing on the specifics of your Lake Norman home!

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I received an email yesterday from a potential Lake Norman home-buyer from Texas asking me if I could provide him with a 10-year history of sales in The Point.  Explaining that the best I could do due to time constraints would be to send him the raw data, I set out to pull up the numbers by year breaking out waterfront from all of the rest of the properties.  Well, being the data geek that I am, once I saw the raw data I decided I really wanted to make two spread sheets breaking the numbers out by year for my readers: 

The Point

Home Sales: Non-Waterfront

The Point

Home Sales:  Waterfront

*All data is from the Charlotte Regional Multiple Listing Service only and does not include sales that were not conducted through our MLS

When looking at these two charts it is important to remember that The Point  was a brand new subdivision back in 2001.  For the first few years all of the sales were new construction.  You will note that, especially in the non-waterfront sales, many of the homes sold above the listing price which would be due to upgrades requested by the buyers.  There are still a few new-construction homes available but now most of the sales today are resale.

Observations:

• Waterfront home sales data is a bit more erratic than the non-waterfront home sales.  The non-waterfront home sales numbers lay out a nice, clean and steady increase in the price per square foot until their peak in 2006 and then a more dramatic decline starting in 2007.  The waterfront home sales, while also peaking in 2006, do not reflect as clean a trend because they are impacted by the great spread in the individual home prices from about $1 million to over $4 million.  A perfect example is our first quarter of 2010.  There were only two waterfront home sales, one at $1,400,000 and the other at $3,375,000.  The average $ per square foot is obviously tremendously skewed by the $3 million+ sale.
• While our Lake Norman real estate market started to slow down in the second quarter of 2007 which is evident at The Point as well, The Point experienced a dramatic drop is sales in 2008 and has yet to recover. 
• At $150, the average $ per square foot for non-waterfront homes so far in 2010 is actually not too far off of the rest of Lake Norman’s more upscale communities. In fact, I did an analysis for one of my buyers about a month ago which had home sales prices per square footage at The Point up to $650,000 about equal to similar quality homes outside of The Point.
• Finally, note that the average sales price of a non-waterfront home at the Point is actually lower this year compared to 2001.

 There are currently 28 waterfront homes in The Point for sale through the MLS and 41 non-waterfront active listings.

As an interesting side note, the estate in the photo at the top has been actively listed for 1050 days. (It was first listed on 1/26/07).  The initial list price was $3,595,000.  About two years ago I had a buyer who entered into negotiations but failed to get the sellers down to even $3 million.  It is now listed at $2,695,000 and is an absolutely stunning property in the coveted  ”The Village” neighborhood in The Point. 

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 The Point  in Mooresville NC is arguably the most prestigious luxury community in all of Lake Norman and it is also the largest with 18 miles of beautiful Lake Norman’s shoreline.  So, when I see interesting changes in housing numbers in The Point I try to put them in context to see if they are in fact an indicator of a significant shift or trend. 

Back on September 18, 2008 I wrote:  The Point in Lake Norman: A Case Study #2.  In this report I noted that we had 123 active listings which translated at the time to a whopping 41-month supply of inventory!  Then, in: Lake Norman Real Estate: Affordable Housing at The Point…Wow! on July 25, 2009 I noted that we had 114 active listings and had sold on 19 homes since the beginning of the year or a 38-month supply of active listings.

Today, the number of active listings in The Point has dropped to 82 or 33% below a year ago September.  In today’s buyers’ market this number alone is good news.  But, it gets even more interesting when you look at the recent sales numbers.  In this past October we had 9 closed sales in The Point which is a significant jump from any month for several years.  This makes for a total of 36 sales year-to-date in 2009 in The Point.  But, as of July 25, 2009 we only had 19 sales so we have almost doubled our sales for the year in The Point in the past 4 months.  At 36 sales we have already surpassed the 2008 sales total for the year of 33.  And, we have 7 pending sales and 5 conditional sales that will most likely close by the end of 2009 for a potential total annual sales of 48 almost half of which will have been in this winter 4th quarter.  If we average 5 sales per month we would have dropped to about a 16-month supply of active listings. While still high, this number is less than half of the 41 months we had in September of 2008. 

What does such a strong fourth quarter mean?  

While it is still clearly a buyer’s market in The Point, I think these numbers are significant enough to indicate a positive trend.  Inventory is dropping and sales are increasing.  While half of the inventory and sales are homes priced under $1million, there are FOUR homes priced well over $1million currently under contract and poised to close.  It would seem that some of our luxury home buyers are jumping off of the fence, enticed by some great price reductions and perhaps a sense that now is a good time to buy.

One example of an incredible bargain is a waterfront lot foreclosure that closed this past week in The Point for $400,000.  This lot sold for about half the market value.  It has very good water and views and is about an acre of a flat to gently sloping lot…just what most home buyers and builders are seeking.  At our peak this lot was probably worth over $1million.

Here are some interesting statistics related to homes at The Point: 

Active Listings:

•  82 today  (months of supply = 9.8 if use the past 30 days or 16.5 if use last 3 months)
• 114 in July of  this year  (months of supply = 38)
• 123 in September of 2008 (months of supply = 41)
• Peak of about 140

Pending Sales:  7

Conditional Sales: 5

Contingent Sales: 2

Solds:

• Since October 1, 2009:      9  (25 % of this year’s sales were in October!) 
• Past 3 month or since 8/11/09:      14
• Same 3-month period in 2008:     7
• Same 3-month period in 2007:     14 
• Year-to-date 2009:      36
• All of 2008:      33
• All of 2007:      76

Price ranges of homes currently on the market:

• $500,000:   5 
• $600,000:   9
• $700,000:  6
• $800,000:  15
• $900,000:  4

Contingent Sales:

• $699,000
• $2,199,000

Conditional Sales:

• $749,000
• $899,000
• $1,495,000
• $2,750,000
• $3,950,000

Pending Sales:

• $578,500
• $695,000
• $749,900
• $779,500
• $1,599,000

Affordable housing at The Point on Lake Norman?  It’s an oxymoron, or is it?  Thanks to its incredible reputation as THE upscale Lake Norman community, many home-buyers just assume that a home in The Point is out of their price range. 

 With their resort-like amenities including  The Point Lake and Golf Club, their Nantucket-inspired community complete with a tennis club, three swimming pools, a general store, tavern, large club house, full-time activities director and even their own cobbler, one tends to picture their magnificent waterfront estates dotting the shoreline of the Brawley Peninsula.

There is no doubt that with 18 miles of Lake Norman’s most beautiful shoreline, The Point has more than its share of multi-million dollar homes. 

 Would it surprise you to know that there is a lovely ranch home on a waterview lot currently for sale for only $495,000? Now that’s affordable housing at The Point! In fact, as of today, there are 114 active listings in The Point.  While their average price is $1,338,142, there are 5 active listings under $600,000 and another 10 active listings under $700,000!  There is a total of 50 homes for sale in The Point under $1 million. 

A community that has a perception of being out of reach for most home buyers may actually be affordable after all!  

 How would you like the current scoop on the affordability of The Point? 

 It turns out that since this past January 1, 2009 only 19 homes have sold in The Point half of which sold for under $1 million.  Since their highs a few years ago, waterfront homes are now selling under $300 per square foot depending on the quality of the water.  With 38 months of supply of homes based upon current sales and inventory, we are seeing many price reductions and even foreclosures and short sales at The Point, something that would have been unheard of a few years ago.

Sure, these prices may not be affordable to all,  However, compared to their peak, this may be the best opportunity to buy in The Point before our Lake Norman housing market comes back to life AND the widening of Brawley School is completed.

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Those of us who live down Lake Norman’s infamous Brawley School peninsula know only too well that construction is well under way on the two-year widening project.  The large, orange sign “warning, expect delays”  blinks at us daily although by now we pretty much know what to expect. 

One of my fellow Brawley School friends/clients asked me at lunch yesterday whether I had seen any renderings of the completed project and details as to whether there would be bike lanes, landscaping and other details which I hadn’t.

So, today I made full use of Google and uncovered some fairly well-hidden information on the North Carolina Department of Transportation’s website  and contacted John R Cook, Resident Engineer, Statesville Construction who provided some prompt and exciting information as well.

Here are the Brawley School Road Widening Project Highlights:

• Widen to four lanes with a median south of Southfork Rd to Talbert Rd
• Sidewalks will be built on both sides
• Sharp curves will be straighten (We can see this just from the grading that has already taken place)
• The median will prohibit left turns into and out of individual properties along the project

The Design and Public Hearing Maps are available from this website as PDF files so you can see in great detail what the process will involve and what the end product will look like in 2011.

Mr. Cook, in response to my inquiry, provided unexpectedly good news:

• There will be bike lanes!!!  (This is such great news.  Finally we will have safe cycling in our community!)
• The median will be grass.  There are no details yet regarding landscaping. 

If you would like more information, John R. Cook can be reached at #707.876.3543.

Short term, it is a bit of a pain in the neck but the end result is going to be well worth it!

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