I was previewing Lake Norman waterfront properties last week on a spectacularly beautiful day and decided to take some photos.  This is about as good as it gets for what we call “main channel” views.  At the southern portion, the main channel of Lake Norman widens out quite a bit which creates these vast, wide open water views.  As you travel to the north side of the Brawley Peninsula, the main channel narrows a bit and curves around our many peninsulas making the main channel views quite different; a bit more private.

And yes, that is a real palm tree!

Imagine waking up to this every morning or lounging on a summer afternoon with a cold sweet tea!  Jump in the pool or the lake…so many decisions!

To make your desktop calendar, go to the round button at the top of this site’s home page entitled: “Lake Norman Calendar”. Click on this button and up will come this image of my Lake Norman photo wallpaper calender for January 2012. All you have to do is right click and select “set as background”. If you would like a copy of this photo without the calendar, just send me an email.

FREE $25 GAS CARD!

I need your HELP!  I would love to use one of your favorite photos depicting life here in Lake Norman.  (Optimum size is a landscape photo about 2MB or about 1600 x 1200 pixels). I will give a $25 Gas Card to anyone who provides a photo that I use as one of my monthly calendars.  If you’d like to submit a photo  or an idea for a future calendar, please send it to…

diane@dianeaurit.com

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Relocating to Lake Norman

Let’s face it, we are being bombarded by economic predictions of all kinds this month; so much so that I even hesitated to add my own to the massive pile.  But, since my mission is to provide you with  insight into our Lake Norman housing market and the role the national, state and local economy plays on our successes and weakness, I will once again do my best to assess and make predictions for 2012.

The last line of my 2011 predictions was actually a fairly accurate summary of 2011:

2011 may hold some surprises but for the most part it will be a year of stops and starts; ups and downs and hopefully dwindling inventory.

And, indeed, we did experience a significant shrinking of our inventory of active listings so the 2011 Lake Norman real estate market actually exceeded my expectations.

In some respects, I could pretty much just copy my 2011 predictions for 2012 as I really don’t see many short-term signs that would justify a significant change in either direction. With distressed sales currently representing only 10.8% of our active inventory in my opinion short sales and foreclosures will not drive or dominate our market as they did in the past, particularly 2009-2010.  That said, in the first two weeks of  2012, 46% of the properties that just went under contract were either short sales, pre-foreclosures or bank-owned which underscores the mood of our current buyers…they want bargains when possible.

Before I go into more detail, let’s look at the larger economic issues that will impact our local market.

The Big Picture:

2012 will be about jobs, consumer confidence, stability of the European economy, handling of the backlog of foreclosures not to mention a year of political elections.

• Most economists seem to agree that our country will experience a year of modest growth  in 2012.
• Interest rates are currently at record lows (under 4%) and are expected to rise hand-in-hand with the strengthening US economy but remain historically low.
• “A fresh emphasis on healing the housing sector by…the Federal Reserve, in the Obama administration and in state capitols reflects the view that a healthier real estate market would go a long way in strengthening the economy” according to an article on November 3, 2011 in Reuters. Good news that they are focusing on housing!
• The proposed Feds pilot program turning bank-owned properties into rentals and a proposal that Fannie and Freddie provide an 12-month reprieve or reduced payments for the unemployed are supported as positive efforts that will help stabilize our national housing market.  Home loans will continue to be a very challenging process and will play a role in hindering the ability for our housing market to improve.
• Unlike last year at this time, nationally and locally our unemployment rates are falling.
• Inventory of homes for sale and mortgage delinquencies are dropping nationwide and here in Lake Norman
• Regarding shadow  inventory of properties in the foreclosure process, one pundit summed it up very well: ”Distressed inventory’s impact isn’t so much to lower prices as to prevent them from rising for many years.”
• National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun said: “Lower inventory is a signal that price declines are coming to an end….prices have been moving both up and down with no consistent direction since 2009.  In other words: prices have been roughly stable for the past 3 years.”
• The National Association of Home Builders is forecasting GDP growth in 2012 at 2.2-2.4% and single-family housing starts to gain 17% in 2012 “following what was almost the worst year on record in 2011… The bottom line for 2012 is that, while demand for new homes won’t ‘burst forward’, it will slowing improve now that the overall housing market appears to have reached bottom and started back on the path to recovery.”
• An article on 12/11, Money Magazine noted that 2012 is a great year to buy “if appropriate for you” based upon cheap interest rates and a slight uptick in the national housing market
• According to a survey (sponsored by Zillow Inc) of more than 100 economists, real estate experts and investment strategists, Home prices…won’t hit bottom until late 2012 or early 2013.
• An article this week in Kiplinger noted: “The bleeding is just about over, but don’t expect a speedy recovery…the worst is over…this doesn’t mean prices across the nation are poised to rebound any time soon.”  “2012 will be the year that prices finally stabilize, setting the stage for gains in 2013.”

North Carolina:

Our Lake Norman housing market is also going to be impacted significantly by regional economic components, especially jobs.

• “Economists are predicting a sluggish economic recovery for North Carolina and the nation in 2012″ according to an article in the Charlotte Observer on 1/4 2012.    According to attendees at the recent Economic Forecast Forum sponsored by the NC Chamber and NC Bankers Association, “don’t expect dramatic improvements in the state unemployment rate this year.”
• Predictions for North Carolina: N.C. Jobless rate will drop to 9.3% from 10% in 2012. N.C. economic growth for 2012 will be 2% and N.C. will gain 40,000 jobs in 2012 compared to about 21,000 in 2011.
• North Carolina is still a destination for many from around the country ranking among the fastest-growing states according to the U.S. Census Bureau.  Altas Movers also ranked North Carolina in the top ten “inbound” states where more people move into the state than move out.  Good news for our long term market!
• North Carolina also ranked at the very top for the number of retiree’s moving to the state by the U.S. Census Bureau.
•  Forbes and Site Selection both ranked North Carolina 3rd in the best states for business/best business climate and in 3rd place on the list of migration to rather than from the state.
• North Carolina ranks among the states with the lowest number of foreclosures, coming in at 34 according to a Charlotte Observer article on 11/11/11.

My Predictions:

• Buyers will continue to expect bargains sometimes unjustifiably so.  With such low inventory, I am seeing properties that have been sitting selling at prices that are higher than the past few years. Sellers will need to steel themselves for low-ball offers as buyers continue to feel the need to attempt to get a very low price.  This will change as prices stabilize and consumer confidence rises.  It is important to note that this varies greatly by price range and neighborhood.
• Foreclosures and short sales will continue to make up about 1/3 of our Lake Norman sales but represent only about 10% of our inventory. We will continue to see active listings slowly evolving into short sales or foreclosures and new foreclosures coming on the market as the shadow inventory is cycled into our market.  These will sell at a disproportionately higher rate that non-distressed properties.
• Shadow Inventory?  One of the biggest questions I have again this year is just how many Lake Norman homeowners are either waiting to sell until they see a turn in the market or have withdrawn their homes from the market while planning to bring them back on the market once they see signs of improvement.  Our inventory is currently at record lows and we are closing in on our goal of 6-8 months of supply. The question is will a large number of sellers who have been waiting now jump into the market as they see sales improving thus weakening our recovery?  And, how many foreclosures are coming?
• More of the same?  Yes and no.  We are starting out 2012 with weak sales numbers but significantly lower inventory as well.  In 2012 I think we will continue to experience erratic monthly highs and lows in sales.  Foreclosures and shortsales will continue to keep our overall average prices down but will not dominate our prices in every price range or neighborhood. As pent-up home-buyers begin to accept that our Lake Norman housing market is stabilizing, they will take advantage of the low interest rates and jump off the fence when they find the right home that suits their needs.
• With inventory so low, I predict that our sales will remain at about 900 in 2012 which is about equal to the past two years.  Our overall average prices will stabilize but there will be many fluxuations within price ranges, neighborhoods, waterfront properties.  I feel pretty confident that 2012 is the year to buy waterfront properties as I watch the inventory of nice homes with good water at great prices disappearing and not being replaced.  It is going to more important than ever for buyers and sellers to know their specific niche’s recent comparable sales and not to rely on old data.
• Be informed, be smart and be realistic!

I would love to hear your thoughts and predictions. Please leave a comment!

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Lake Norman Relocation Resources 

For 15 years there has been a planning effort among state and local officials to create what is being called the Red Line project; a 25-mile commuter train that will run east of I-77  and link Charlotte to Harris, Eastfield, Hambright, Huntersville, Cornelius, Davidson and end at Mount Mourne in south Mooresville.

To me the benefits are obvious: cutting traffic on I-77 and helping commuters who work in Charlotte but wish to live in the Lake Norman area.  Opponents of the plan unfortunately include a large chunk of Iredell County elected Officials and several Cornelius town board members who balk at the taxes, proposed development along the line and feel it will benefit just a few.

This past Wednesday, November 30th, consultants outlined a 5-year plan to build the Red Line Regional Rail which included a formal partnership among local governments, the state and Charlotte Area Transportation System.  According to an article by Christina Rogers in Cornelius.net, “Under the proposed plan, the partners would cooperate by setting up a Joint Powers Authority (JPA) which would govern construction and operations costs: 25% from CATS, 25% from the state of North Carolina, and 50% from local governments….The plan…fleshes out how the towns would meet their obligation, and it won’t mean increased taxes for individual homeowners….Instead, under th proposed plan, towns would pay for the rail through revenues expected to result from the increased value of property along the rail line.”

There is a ton of detailed information about the Red Line on the Cornelius News.Net Blog.  They have some great links including this one of the map:

http://corneliusnews.net/Documents/2011/113011%20Red%20Line%20Business%20Plan/RLRR%20Corridor%20Map.pdf

Want to get involved or learn more?

There will be a 4-hour public meeting on December 13th from 10:00am – 2:00pm at the Charles Mack Citizens Center in Historic Downtown Mooresville.  You can also learn more at the Lake Norman Transportation Commission’s website.

Please share with my readers your thoughts, experience or any feedback from these meetings!

Additional Articles 

Economic News Provides Insight into the future of Lake Norman Real Estate

Lake Norman and Charlotte Remain at the Top of  the List of Places to Live

A Glimpse Into Post Recession Lake Norman Real Estate

Lake Norman Area is Growing and Improving Despite the Recession!

Lake Norman Real Estate: Is Mooresville Really Bucking the Recession?

Lake Norman Real Estate: Wow! A Lot of Good News!

Looking at a variety of local and state economic and business news is an important component of gaining insight into the future direction of our Lake Norman real estate market.  I collect such data from various news sources for several months and then share them with you in one blog post with the goal of helping you get a better understanding of the bigger picture in our area’s economy.  This stack of data shows some glimmer of hope:

• ISI Alams announced on 10/5/11 that they will be moving their headquarters and call center to Downtown Mooresville.  (From Concord). This move will include an expansion and, according to CEO Jayson Walker, will  employ about 150 workers within two years.

• Forest City Land Group has requested a rezoning of property on N.C. 801 in Mooresville for their Cotton Creek housing development; increasing the number of single family homes from 655 to 1,100.  While this is a long-term project, it is a positive sign to see developers moving forward with the planning and construction of new homes after years of inactivity and even shutdowns.

• “Facebook ‘likes’ North Carolina, and it’s investing here” according to a Charlotte Observer article on 10/5/11.  The first of Facebook’s 3-building data center is scheduled to go online in March, 2012 about 75 miles west of Charlotte.  The $450 million data center will serve the Eastern U.S. and Europe. This announcement “underscores state officials’ efforts to lure high-profile companies to North Carolina …with the help of incentives including our low-cost electricity, ready access to water and significant building incentives”.  Facebook will join Google, Apple, Time Warner Cable as part of North Carolina’s “data hub”.

• North Carolina ranks as Number 16 cyberstate according to The Triangle Business Journal on 10/10/2011.  TechAmerica Foundations’ annual report stated that North Carolina currently employs 145,700 tech workers.  North Carolina computers and peripheral equipment manufacturing which employs 11,000 ranks 4th nationwide after California, Texas and Massachusetts.

• North Carolina ranks 5th in corporate relocations according to another article in The Triangle Business Journal on 8/17/11. “An Atlas Van Lines migration study shows that North Carolina continues to rank among the strongest states in the country as a corporate relocation destination.”

• North Carolina was 8th in the “Top 10 States for Venture Capital” rankings according to an 8/9/11 article in The Triangle Business Journal.

• “Charlotte among Forbes’ top potential boom cities” was the headline of an article in the Charlotte Business Journal on 7/14/11.  Charlotte ranked 8th on the list “mainly because of its mild climate, low housing prices and relatively small size, which allows it to avoid transportation bottlenecks that strangle larger cities like Atlanta”.  They also considered the Charlotte Airport and Charlotte’s investment in its infrastructure.

• North Carolina is the second-least-expensive state for mortgage closing costs according to a new survey from Bankrate Inc.  I can support these findings as I hear this from many of my relocation clients who are very pleased when they find out their actual closing costs are so low!

• Charlotte ranked 47th in job increases out of all of the U.S’s metropolitan areas according to an article on 10/4/11 in the Triangle Business Journal.

RELATED ARTICLES

Lake Norman and Charlotte Remain at the Top of  the List of Places to Live

A Glimpse Into Post Recession Lake Norman Real Estate

Lake Norman Area is Growing and Improving Despite the Recession!

Lake Norman Real Estate: Is Mooresville Really Bucking the Recession?

Lake Norman Real Estate: Wow! A Lot of Good News!