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Lake Norman Real Estate’s May 2012 Hot Sheet

Diane Aurit — Mon, 21 May 2012 15:39:47 +0000

Want the very latest insight into our Lake Norman real estate market? So do I which is why, every month, I do a snapshot analysis of the middle two weeks of the month to get a sense of where our Lake Norman real estate market is at this very moment…an almost live insight into the heartbeat of the Lake Norman housing market. These Hot Sheet reports serve as pretty good predictors of our short-term Lake Norman real estate market.

Well, last month I became a bit skeptical about the sustainability of the stronger sales numbers in our Lake Norman housing market so far in 2012. But, after a few small hiccups our closing sales in April actually ended up at 90 which matched our previous high April since 2007. And, now our May sales numbers are looking even better:

Lake Norman Real Estate’s Two-Week Hot Sheet

5/21/2012

* The above chart is a summary of today’s “Hot Sheet” from the Charlotte Multiple Listing Service for single family homes in all of Lake Norman (area 13). These numbers represent a real time snapshot of the past two week’s activity. (May 7th – 21st). As always, I have included the past 6 months so that you can put these numbers in perspective.

I created this additional chart comparing just the May Hot Sheets for the past 3 years to help put our May 2012 numbers in perspective with the past Mays, not just the past 6 months:

May Hot Sheet Numbers for the Past 4 Years

Highlights:

New listings: Our number of new listings seems to have leveled out after our usual spring bump. They are on the lower side of previous May’s as well. If you add our new listings to the 13 back-on-market we had a total of 123 Lake Norman properties added to our housing inventory in the past two weeks compared to last May’s 118, 168 in May 2010 and 178 in May 2009. As of this morning the total number of active listings in Lake Norman had increased from our all time low of 752 in January back up to 975 which is still low historically but definitely trending slightly higher. The reason these low numbers are good news is because keeping our inventory low will help stabilize our own Lake Norman housing market no matter what is happening in other areas or states. Hopefully we will see new listings slow down further now that our typical seasonal uptick has passed.

The number of properties that came back-on-the-market, most likely due to cancelled contracts, dropped significantly from last month and remain low when compared to past months AND past years. This is a very good sign as it indicates that buyers are more committed and better qualified when they write an offer to purchase a home in Lake Norman. That said, home loans are still extremely challenging. Every loan approved warrants a celebration!

The number of price changes was down significantly after trending higher in early spring. They are also substantially lower than the past Mays’ since 2009. Considering our sales are fairly good, this might be an indication that prices are stabilizing. There is no doubt that overpriced listings are sitting until they are reduced to the “magic” number that generates offers, even multiple offers.

Pending home sales improved slightly since April but are weaker than previous Mays’. Pending home sales are contracts that have passed all of their conditions/contingencies/Due Diligence Deadlines and are just waiting to close. It is important to note that last June as well as June 2010 we had closed sales in excess of 100. These were historically exceptional months since the recession began; 201o was due to the home credit rebate program.

The number of closed sales reported in the past two weeks improved from last month’s. When all our numbers were in we actually recorded 90 closed sales in Lake Norman last month which tied us with the best Aprils’s since 2007. Our hot sheet numbers also higher than 2 of the past 3 May’s, again being up against the rebates of 2010. So far this entire month 44 closed sales have been reported to our MLS compared to 43 last month, 43 in March, 34 in February, 21 in January. Considering all of these numbers, my best guess is that we will again close about 90 single family home sales this month and should end up significantly higher than May 2011 and 2009 and about equal to May 201o’s rebate bump. This means that our Lake Norman single family home sales have been higher than last year’s every month in 2012. 5 straight month’s of stronger sales is not only a record since 2007 but it is an indication that the erratic nature of our previous years may finally be stabilizing.

Our Conditional and Contingent sales improved slightly from last month and are higher than the past 3 May’s. As the very most recent properties to go under contract, this improvement bodes well for the next few months at least. They also serve to boost my confidence that our Lake Norman housing market is on a sustainable path to recovery. Each month will help to support or undercut this.

Overall this month (not just the past 2 weeks) our conditional sales are very strong and our sales pending remain stable. These numbers are very encouraging. If inventory remains low, and our sales are at least steady if not improving each month it would indicate that our Lake Norman housing market has hit bottom.

Our current number months of supply of active listings stands at about 10.8 months using our 90 closed sales in April. A recent article by Refin indicated that their 17- urban counties months of inventory had plummeted to 3.3 months! With a balanced real estate market goal of 6-8 months, Lake Norman clearly has a ways to go. Here in the Charlotte/Lake Norman housing market our downturn hit in spring 2007 which was a bit later than most of the country. It is reasonable to expect that we might not follow national trends as we heal. I continue to encourage my buyers to buy if they find a good home at a good price, especially waterfront homes. While I don’t anticipate prices going up in Lake Norman this year, I also don’t see that many truly exceptional bargains. (Less than 8% of our inventory are distressed properties: foreclosures and shortsales). Prices in general are low as are interest rates. In my opinion, 2012 represents a great opportunity for potential Lake Norman home buyers. Is that a light I see at the end of the tunnel? Only time will tell!

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Lake Norman’s Shopping and Restaurants Just Keep Getting Better!

Diane Aurit — Mon, 14 May 2012 20:01:23 +0000

At a time when many towns are working hard just to retain their local businesses, Lake Norman just keeps adding more great options for our lucky area residents! The growth since my family arrived in 2005 is truly amazing. When I drive relocating buyers around the Lake Norman communities I point out many of these recent additions which have added so much variety and convenience to our lifestyles. While growth definitely slowed starting in 2008 we have continued to get some exciting new restaurants and retail stores; and this trend is increasing as our Lake Norman area economy recovers.

Here are some of our latest additions:

Restaurants/Food and Beverages:

Mooresville Ice Cream Company’s old fashioned ice cream parlor is celebrating its grand opening at the corner of Broad and Moore Ave this Friday, May 18th. This comes on the heels of the launch of their new Front Porch Carolina Churned Ice Cream Brand featuring “Southern-inspired flavors” including “Sassy Strawberry, Chocolate Rocker, Blackberry Crumble and Home-style Butter Pecan.” YUM!
Michael Bay, developer/owner of Mooresville’s old Burlington Mill is planning to open “an authentic, Old World Pizzeria“ on September 25th following the traditions of Naples Italy. The 120-seat pizzeria will be located on Main St. in the former power house building at the old Mill. 4 brick ovens, all organic…can’t wait!
The Prickly Pear just opened in their new location next to Vinnie’s on Williamson Rd in Mooresville. Same great food but now awesome lake view dining as well!
La Patisserie on Brawley School Rd continues to be a hot spot since opening about a year ago. GREAT bakery, lunches and Sunday brunch.
My husband and I have become quite fond of Blu Star Grill which opened recently in the Harris Teeter Shopping Center at the corner of Brawley School and Williamson Rd. Their main feature is the build your own burger which can start with Black Angus Beef, Bison, Ground Turkey, Chicken Breast or the Black-bean Burger. “Fresh, natural food is what this whole concept is about,” Bass said in a recent Mooresville Weekly article. “We all see a lot about farm-to-fork and using fresh, locally grown/made products in higher-end restaurants, so why not apply that to a fast-casual setting?”
The Davidson Beverage Co. just opened last week at 442 S. Main Street in Davidson. This specialty wine and craft beer store not only sells craft beers and wine but has a tasting bar, wide-screen TV, wi-fi as well. I think this will definitely become a popular hangout very soon!
Paddy’s Poor House just opened recently in the Shops on The Green in Cornelius. They offer “upscale pub grub” with a goal of creating a friendly, “Cheers vibe” to attract locals and neighbors. Owner Tim Flynn, a disabled veteran, was attracted to Lake Norman from New York by our warm weather and nice people. There is a lot of this going around!
Now here is a really cool idea: a restaurant/hangout for dogs and dog lovers! Opening this summer in Cornelius on Hwy 21, Lucky Dog will not only offer many dog services including day care, a doggy park and grooming, but will have The Lucky Dog Bar, serving coffee, espresso, beer, wine and cocktails for the humans that frequent the great dog facility.
Bad Daddy’s Burger Bar opened recently in one of my favorite destinations: Birkdale Village in Huntersville. Bad Daddy’s offers something for everyone, including vegetarians, with great burgers, giant chopped salads, homemade chips. You can even build your own burger. They offer breakfast on Saturdays and Sundays from 8-11am.
Coming soon to Birkdale Village is Bonefish Grill. More to follow as I find out more. 5/18/12 Update: Bonefish Grill is now open! This is a restaurant chain and as its name suggests has a wide variety of wood-grilled and baked fishes as well as grilled meats, salads and soups. The only review I have found was positive so check it out and let us know what you think!

Last week I had a potential Lake Norman homebuyer ask me if we had a Sam’s Club in the area. Well, guess what? it was just announced that Sam’s Club plans to locate a new store on Ervin Rd just off Hwy 150 and Morrison Plantation in Mooresville. Now, if we could get a Whole Foods…anyone listening?

Finally, something I think could only happen in our car crazy area. The Auto Country Club is coming. Yes, a country club for car lovers! The Auto Country Club will consist of ten 20,000 sq ft buildings on 27 acres on Hwy 73 in Huntersville. The club will consist of individual car condominiums that can be customized to the owners specifications. Each condo can be outfitted with a loft to create your ultimate “Man Cave”? And, their clubhouse will include a kitchen, lounge, conference room, show room for car events, outside fireplace and grilling area, dining both inside and out.

Have anything to add? Feel free to email me or leave a comment!

Lake Norman Real Estate’s April 2012 Home Sales Analysis

Diane Aurit — Mon, 07 May 2012 15:30:21 +0000

April makes it four; four months in a row of Lake Norman home sales increases over the prior year….but barely! As of today our closed sales are just equal to April 2011′s (See Below!) but I expect at least 3 or more April sales once all of the agents have input their data into our MLS which is the case every month. Unlike the last three months, however, our April closings will not be the highest since 2007. (Update 5/15, they actually equalled our highest April’s!) Of course, in April 2010 we had the tax rebates but we may even match those numbers once all of our sales are recorded. All in all, not a bad month but not great either. That said, wait until you see our other numbers!

Here are the April 2012 numbers from our Charlotte Multiple Listing Service for our Lake Norman Area 13 real estate market:

IMPORTANT UPDATE! As of today, 5/16/2012 we have now closed 90 sales in April which is 6 higher than this report and 6 higher (7%) than April 2011!

Some significant additional interesting statistics for you:

“Distressed sales” ( Foreclosures (REOS), defaults, Short Sales) comprised only 16.67 % of our closed sales in March down from 27.7 % last month, 21% in February, 31% in January, 36.7% in December, 36% in November, 19.8% in October, 10% in September, 16.8 in August, 18.5% in July, 25% in June and 27% in May 2011. The US average is 24%. The price range of these distressed sales was $75,000 – $1,270,000. Our percentage of distressed active listings increased slightly to 8% from 6.2 %. Our number of distressed properties remains very low which is very encouraging. We are not being bombarded by foreclosures and shortsales so far in 2012 as some had predicted.
40% of our closed sales were waterfront homes which is slightly higher than March’s 31%.
43% of Lake Norman’s April home sales were under $400,000.
49 % of our April sales were under $500,000 compared to 61% in March sales and 70% in April. Higher price ranges are selling too.
Our average prices are up for closed and conditional sales and DOWN for our active listings.
As of today, the number of active listings for all of Lake Norman totaled 950 up from 861 on March 1st but still 20% below April 2011. To put this number in even greater context, back in June of 2008 we had 1789 active listings.

A closer look:

The number of Active Listings in Lake Norman increased 9% from last month but are 20% lower than last April. 2011 While our number of active listings is increasing as one would expect in preparation for our strongest seasonal sales market they still remain low. Our absorption rate/months of supply of active listings stands at 11.3%. Our shrinking inventory and rising sales are getting us closer to a balanced 6-8 months of supply in Lake Norman area (MLS area 13). This is good news for the long-term health of our Lake Norman housing market.

Contingent Sales, (sales contracts that are contingent upon the buyer selling their own home) which don’t account for a significant segment of our housing market, have actually been on an upswing. This could be because sellers are more willing to take a risk or more buyers have homes already under contract before they put in an offer.

Conditional Sales increased for the fourth month in a row, this time by a whopping 79%! This is HUGE! After a slight lull the upward momentum of our Lake Norman housing market is impressive to say the least. These are homes that just went under contract and still have financial and inspection conditions. They represent future closed sales most likely in late May/June. Based upon these numbers our closed sales this month should exceed last month’s and have a chance to be our best May/June /July since 2007. Great short term numbers for Lake Norman!

Pending sales were up slightly compared to April 2011 and last month. These are the contracts that are past inspections and are just waiting to close. Pending sales are usually the best indication of closed sales in the next few weeks.

The number of closed home sales in Lake Norman in April will be just a bit higher than April 2012 when all the numbers are in but they weren’t too impressive compared to past April’s. (See the annual chart below).

The total number of Lake Norman homes under contract (but not yet closed) on the first of each month are as follows:

May 7, 2012: 246 (Wow, a new record again!)
April 1, 2012: 227
March 1, 2012: 178
February 1, 2012: 155
January 1: 134 (the lowest ALL year)
December 1: 147
November: 169
October: 193
September: 183
August: 193
July: 178
June: 199,
May: 173
April 195,
March: 163
February: 142

We are clearly seeing a marked upward trend after a lag at the end of 2011. This uptick in sales coupled with our low inventory bode well for the overall health of the Lake Norman housing market.

Here is a breakdown by price-range of our April 2012 closed sales in Lake Norman’s area 13-1 to 13-5:

$75,000 – $199,999: 11
$200,000 – $299,999: 12
$300,000 – $399,999: 13

(These price ranges represented 42.8% of April sales compared to 43% of March sales )

400,000 – $499,999: 6
$500,000 – $599,999: 12

(These price ranges represented 21.4% compared to 26.5% last month)

$600,000 – $699,999: 11
$700,000 – $799,999: 3
$800,000 – $899,999: 2
900,000 – $999,999: 4

(Solds for $600,000 – $1mill = 23.8% compared to 19% last month)

$1,000,000 – $1,999,999: 9
$2 million+ : 1

(Solds $1million+ = 11.9 % compared to 10.8% last month)

8-Year Comparison of Lake Norman Home Sales By Month

* Please note that all of my numbers are for single family homes. They come from the Charlotte Region Multiple Listing Service and will not include sales that took place outside of our MLS.

**I have made an adjustment of the totals reflecting the ACTUAL sales every month in 2009, 2010 and the totals in the prior calendar years. The columns may not add up but I do my best with what I have to work! I also adjust past months when I do the monthly update as a few more sales are usually input late by agents.

Summary and My Insight

The Positives and the Negatives:

Good signs:

Sales year to date are up 9.37% over 2011
Inventory of homes for sale remains low
Significantly increasing conditional sales indicate that our Lake Norman housing market has strong momentum which will be reflected in higher closed sales for at least the next two months.
The number of distressed homes for sale are a small percentage of our total inventory and sales
Sales of homes over $499,000 are improving. This past month the $500,000 – $699,000 price range was particularly strong.
When properties are priced about right they are getting quite a few showings. I am getting more calls directly from buyers regarding my own listings. There is a marked uptick in the number of buyers out looking.
We are seeing more and more new construction popping up (Not spec homes)
Interest rates are at all time lows…3.84% for a 30-year fixed this morning!
I have a stack of positive articles about the US housing market from: USA Today, Inman News, Real Trends, JP Morgan CEO in CNBC article, National Association of Realtors, Freddie Mac’s Economic Outlook Report, Bank of America and Merrill Lynch forecasts, Zillow.com and Wall Street Daily.
Positive articles about Charlotte including that we are ranked as one of the 10 fastest growing U.S. Cities according the CNN Money (US Census Bureau), and 53rd in First American’s Improving Market Index
Donald Trump closed on his purchase of The Point Golf and Tennis Club and is infusing cash into renovations and upgrade now named the Trump National Golf Club, Charlotte.

Challenges/Weakesses:

Sales prices remain low and I don’t see any signs of them going up. Rather, properties are selling once they are priced low enough to attract offers and then they may even get multiple offers.
With a shrinking inventory of active listings, buyers have fewer options
Home loans, especially construction loans, are still a very challenging process.
New: Homeowner’s Insurance is harder to get due to new stricter guidelines
Global economic turmoil and US economic uncertainty

As I wrote last month:

I am more convinced than ever that our Lake Norman housing market has hit its bottom in terms of annual sales volume. However, this has not translated to higher sales prices. Prices are low and buyers continue to be very picky; not willing to pay a higher price than past comparable sales.

The gossip among Realtors is how dramatically our activity has increased. Despite low inventories, the number of buyers out actively looking has increased substantially. Real estate firms are touting their sales increases and talk as if we are going to sustain these strong numbers. I am a bit more cautious. While the worst is most likely behind us, we have a long way to go and most expect that it will be a very slow recovery.

My advice to Lake Norman home buyers remains this: Look for homes that are in good locations and have most of the priorities on your list. While your perfect home might come along, don’t wait too long and don’t dismiss a property if it isn’t perfect. Prioritize: Location, quality and depth of water (if waterfront buyer) and floorplan. Then, to determine a realistic price, use VERY RECENT comparable sales in your specific market niche. The selection may not be great but with interest rates at all time lows and prices low it is a good time to buy. With only 8% of Lake Norman’s current listings being “distressed sales” don’t expect the perfect foreclosure or shortsale to come along at an unrealistic price. If you insist on low-balling, at least have some comparable sales to justify your number. Don’t focus as much on the price as on the future marketability of the property. A bargain that has incurable issues that will make it difficult to resale, really isn’t a bargain at all. Be smart!

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Lake Norman Real Estate’s May 2012 Wallpaper Calendar

Diane Aurit — Tue, 01 May 2012 20:41:56 +0000

If you are a sunset person, then you will love Lake Norman. Every evening offers a unique version of the photo above which I took recently at one of my waterfront listings. Sometimes they offer a stunning contrast of the colors of a brilliant fire reflected in a dark layer of glass like this one. Other times our sunset are soft pastel pinks, blues and yellows:

I have a special group of tools with me at all times when showing waterfront properties one of which is a tape measure to see how deep the water is at the dock and the other is a compass to determine exactly where the sun rises and sets. Some waterfront home-buyers definitely want sunsets while others want to avoid the afternoon sun and prefer sunrises. With 520 miles of shoreline and myriad peninsulas, Lake Norman offers plenty of options for either of the above and everything in between!

To make your desktop calendar, go to the round button at the top of this site’s home page entitled: “Lake Norman Calendar”. Click on this button and up will come this image of my Lake Norman photo wallpaper calender for May 2012. All you have to do is right click and select “set as background”. If you would like a copy of this photo without the calendar, just send me an email.

FREE $25 GAS CARD!

I need your HELP! I would love to use one of your favorite photos depicting life here in Lake Norman. (Optimum size is a landscape photo about 2MB or about 1600 x 1200 pixels). I will give a $25 Gas Card to anyone who provides a photo that I use as one of my monthly calendars. If you’d like to submit a photo or an idea for a future calendar, please send it to…

diane@dianeaurit.com

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The Reality of Lowball Offers in Lake Norman Real Estate

Diane Aurit — Thu, 26 Apr 2012 14:27:20 +0000

I got a call yesterday from a potential buyer for one of my listings. He told me he would like me to present an all cash offer of $350,000 for a property I just listed at $429,000. With a little prodding I was able to find out that he hadn’t seen the home and didn’t know the neighborhood. I tried to explain a bit about the price and comps and his response was “it is a terrible real estate market and that’s all I need to know”. REALLY?

Needless to say, my client’s counter to this buyer was not accepted.

This is just one example of how not to be successful in our current Lake Norman housing market. While it is quite common for investors and low-ballers to make these kind of offers when a new listing comes on the market, I have to wonder what these buyers are thinking? Or, are they thinking at all? Even banks get disgusted with these types of buyers. Here is a great example:

A Lake Norman waterfront foreclosure was listed a few months ago for $399,000. I had an interested buyer so I spoke with the listing agent. At that time, the bank had already received and turned down several very low offers from investors and it was clear that both the listing agent and the bank were frustrated with these buyers. My buyer decided to wait. Over a period of several months the price was lowered twice. Finally, they lowered it to $329,000. My buyer quickly made an offer of $305,000 and it was accepted just before multiple offers were coming in. Clearly, if my buyer had made an offer of $305,000 when it was originally listed it would not have been as well received.

I had a buyer a while back who wanted to make an offer of $800,000 on a home listed at $1,189,000 because he heard the sellers might be desperate to sell. I knew the comparable sales would not justify anything even close to this price but my buyer felt that if “your throw out enough of these offers eventually one will stick”. But seriously, if the seller was that desperate wouldn’t they have lowered the price to get multiple offers? This kind of thinking is truly irrational. This property just closed for $1,100,000.

I have sold and continue to sell some incredible bargains on Lake Norman but I try to counsel and educate my buyers:

Timing is everything. Develop a relationship with the listing agent, especially of foreclosures and shortsales, so that you will know when the sellers are ready to work with a lower offer.
Do your homework! I always do a complete market analysis and research the history of any property for my buyers before they make an offer. We will know how long it has actually been on the market, how many price reductions, what their loan amount is and if there are any signs of distress like a notice of default, a divorce, etc.

There was a recent article in the Los Angeles Times “Low-ball Offers Decline in Some Housing Markets” April 22, 2012 which stated “For home buyers who still think they have a chance of hitting it lucky with a low-ball offer, they’re finding in many markets that their offers are more often being rejected or countered closer to the original asking price.” In my opinion this is an accurate description of our current Lake Norman real estate market. Be smart!

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