*Compiled from the Charlotte Regional Multiple Listing Service’s data, this chart enables you to focus on your specific price range(s) rather than use the broad-brush approach thus allowing you to size up your competition and better position yourself.

How to read this report:

• First choose a price range.
• The next column provides the actual number of listings sold in this price range in the  4th quarter of 2011
• This is followed by the percentage this price range represents of the total number of listings sold
• Next is the number of active listings in this price range
• This is followed by the percentage this price range represents of the total number of active listings
• Finally, the last column represent the absorption rate or the number of months of supply for each price range based upon the number of listings divided by the number of sales.

Some Findings:

• Sales of Lake Norman homes when compared with the amount of inventory remain strongest in the lowest price ranges.  The $0 – $399,999 price range represented 62% of Lake Norman home sales and only 40% of the active listings. Properties up to $399,999 currently have an absorption rate of 6.3 month which is a perfectly balanced housing market!
• The second strongest price range this past 3 months was $900,000- $999,999 which represented 2.94% of Lake Norman home sales AND 2.68% of our active listings with 10.5 months of inventory.
• Our weakest price ranges in the past 3 months were the $500,000?s, $800,000?s and homes over $1,000,000.
• 9.66% of our home sales were at or above  $800,000 compared to 12.92%  last quarter and 14.3% in the 2nd quarter of 2011.  We had 1 closed sale over $2 million this quarter compared to 7 in the 3rd quarter, 6 in the 2nd quarter and only 1 in the 1st quarter. Our luxury housing market certainly slowed down in the fourth quarter and seems to do best in the spring and summer.
• Our overall Months of Supply dropped slightly to a respectable 11.5 due in large part to our shrinking inventory of homes for sale. To put this year in perspective, in the 4th quarter of 2009 we had a staggering 46.4 months of supply of homes for sale in Lake Norman!

As a buyer, the chart above will show you where you might face the stiffest competition and at what price ranges you might see opportunities.  As a seller, you can look at the Lake Norman real estate market’s activity by price range and if you are right on the cusp of, for example, a $500,000 listing price, it would clearly be prudent to price your home in the high $400,000’s  where there were nearly twice as many properties sold (and more buyers) and comparatively less competition.

Just for fun, I also created a sales chart by price range for the past year:

Please note that in all of the price range charts I am actually using data from the 15th of the month so these numbers won’t match perfectly with the monthly or annual sales numbers I provide.

OTHER ARTICLES of  INTEREST 

Lake Norman Relocation Resources

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Lake Norman Foreclosures, Short Sales and Green Homes…Search HERE

Let’s face it, we are being bombarded by economic predictions of all kinds this month; so much so that I even hesitated to add my own to the massive pile.  But, since my mission is to provide you with  insight into our Lake Norman housing market and the role the national, state and local economy plays on our successes and weakness, I will once again do my best to assess and make predictions for 2012.

The last line of my 2011 predictions was actually a fairly accurate summary of 2011:

2011 may hold some surprises but for the most part it will be a year of stops and starts; ups and downs and hopefully dwindling inventory.

And, indeed, we did experience a significant shrinking of our inventory of active listings so the 2011 Lake Norman real estate market actually exceeded my expectations.

In some respects, I could pretty much just copy my 2011 predictions for 2012 as I really don’t see many short-term signs that would justify a significant change in either direction. With distressed sales currently representing only 10.8% of our active inventory in my opinion short sales and foreclosures will not drive or dominate our market as they did in the past, particularly 2009-2010.  That said, in the first two weeks of  2012, 46% of the properties that just went under contract were either short sales, pre-foreclosures or bank-owned which underscores the mood of our current buyers…they want bargains when possible.

Before I go into more detail, let’s look at the larger economic issues that will impact our local market.

The Big Picture:

2012 will be about jobs, consumer confidence, stability of the European economy, handling of the backlog of foreclosures not to mention a year of political elections.

• Most economists seem to agree that our country will experience a year of modest growth  in 2012.
• Interest rates are currently at record lows (under 4%) and are expected to rise hand-in-hand with the strengthening US economy but remain historically low.
• “A fresh emphasis on healing the housing sector by…the Federal Reserve, in the Obama administration and in state capitols reflects the view that a healthier real estate market would go a long way in strengthening the economy” according to an article on November 3, 2011 in Reuters. Good news that they are focusing on housing!
• The proposed Feds pilot program turning bank-owned properties into rentals and a proposal that Fannie and Freddie provide an 12-month reprieve or reduced payments for the unemployed are supported as positive efforts that will help stabilize our national housing market.  Home loans will continue to be a very challenging process and will play a role in hindering the ability for our housing market to improve.
• Unlike last year at this time, nationally and locally our unemployment rates are falling.
• Inventory of homes for sale and mortgage delinquencies are dropping nationwide and here in Lake Norman
• Regarding shadow  inventory of properties in the foreclosure process, one pundit summed it up very well: ”Distressed inventory’s impact isn’t so much to lower prices as to prevent them from rising for many years.”
• National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun said: “Lower inventory is a signal that price declines are coming to an end….prices have been moving both up and down with no consistent direction since 2009.  In other words: prices have been roughly stable for the past 3 years.”
• The National Association of Home Builders is forecasting GDP growth in 2012 at 2.2-2.4% and single-family housing starts to gain 17% in 2012 “following what was almost the worst year on record in 2011… The bottom line for 2012 is that, while demand for new homes won’t ‘burst forward’, it will slowing improve now that the overall housing market appears to have reached bottom and started back on the path to recovery.”
• An article on 12/11, Money Magazine noted that 2012 is a great year to buy “if appropriate for you” based upon cheap interest rates and a slight uptick in the national housing market
• According to a survey (sponsored by Zillow Inc) of more than 100 economists, real estate experts and investment strategists, Home prices…won’t hit bottom until late 2012 or early 2013.
• An article this week in Kiplinger noted: “The bleeding is just about over, but don’t expect a speedy recovery…the worst is over…this doesn’t mean prices across the nation are poised to rebound any time soon.”  “2012 will be the year that prices finally stabilize, setting the stage for gains in 2013.”

North Carolina:

Our Lake Norman housing market is also going to be impacted significantly by regional economic components, especially jobs.

• “Economists are predicting a sluggish economic recovery for North Carolina and the nation in 2012″ according to an article in the Charlotte Observer on 1/4 2012.    According to attendees at the recent Economic Forecast Forum sponsored by the NC Chamber and NC Bankers Association, “don’t expect dramatic improvements in the state unemployment rate this year.”
• Predictions for North Carolina: N.C. Jobless rate will drop to 9.3% from 10% in 2012. N.C. economic growth for 2012 will be 2% and N.C. will gain 40,000 jobs in 2012 compared to about 21,000 in 2011.
• North Carolina is still a destination for many from around the country ranking among the fastest-growing states according to the U.S. Census Bureau.  Altas Movers also ranked North Carolina in the top ten “inbound” states where more people move into the state than move out.  Good news for our long term market!
• North Carolina also ranked at the very top for the number of retiree’s moving to the state by the U.S. Census Bureau.
•  Forbes and Site Selection both ranked North Carolina 3rd in the best states for business/best business climate and in 3rd place on the list of migration to rather than from the state.
• North Carolina ranks among the states with the lowest number of foreclosures, coming in at 34 according to a Charlotte Observer article on 11/11/11.

My Predictions:

• Buyers will continue to expect bargains sometimes unjustifiably so.  With such low inventory, I am seeing properties that have been sitting selling at prices that are higher than the past few years. Sellers will need to steel themselves for low-ball offers as buyers continue to feel the need to attempt to get a very low price.  This will change as prices stabilize and consumer confidence rises.  It is important to note that this varies greatly by price range and neighborhood.
• Foreclosures and short sales will continue to make up about 1/3 of our Lake Norman sales but represent only about 10% of our inventory. We will continue to see active listings slowly evolving into short sales or foreclosures and new foreclosures coming on the market as the shadow inventory is cycled into our market.  These will sell at a disproportionately higher rate that non-distressed properties.
• Shadow Inventory?  One of the biggest questions I have again this year is just how many Lake Norman homeowners are either waiting to sell until they see a turn in the market or have withdrawn their homes from the market while planning to bring them back on the market once they see signs of improvement.  Our inventory is currently at record lows and we are closing in on our goal of 6-8 months of supply. The question is will a large number of sellers who have been waiting now jump into the market as they see sales improving thus weakening our recovery?  And, how many foreclosures are coming?
• More of the same?  Yes and no.  We are starting out 2012 with weak sales numbers but significantly lower inventory as well.  In 2012 I think we will continue to experience erratic monthly highs and lows in sales.  Foreclosures and shortsales will continue to keep our overall average prices down but will not dominate our prices in every price range or neighborhood. As pent-up home-buyers begin to accept that our Lake Norman housing market is stabilizing, they will take advantage of the low interest rates and jump off the fence when they find the right home that suits their needs.
• With inventory so low, I predict that our sales will remain at about 900 in 2012 which is about equal to the past two years.  Our overall average prices will stabilize but there will be many fluxuations within price ranges, neighborhoods, waterfront properties.  I feel pretty confident that 2012 is the year to buy waterfront properties as I watch the inventory of nice homes with good water at great prices disappearing and not being replaced.  It is going to more important than ever for buyers and sellers to know their specific niche’s recent comparable sales and not to rely on old data.
• Be informed, be smart and be realistic!

I would love to hear your thoughts and predictions. Please leave a comment!

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Lake Norman Monthly Sales Chart for 7 Years

*Please note that all of my numbers are for single family homes. They come from the Charlotte Region Multiple Listing Service and will not include sales that took place outside of our MLS.  **I have made an adjustment of  the totals reflecting the ACTUAL  sales  every month in 2009, 2010 and 2011 and the totals in the prior calendar years.  The columns may not add up but I do my best with what I have to work!

Price trends since 1998:

As you can see, our volume of Lake Norman home sales peaked in 2005 while our average sales price and price per square foot peaked in 2007.  But, since our significant drop in 2009, our average sales price for all homes in Lake Norman has remained fairly stable while our number of home sales has increased about 16%.

This past year’s average price per square foot of $136 is not that far off of 2005′s $144 despite a drop to half the number of home sales.

Another interesting trend is the average days a home was on the market in Lake Norman (DOM which is the last column on the right).  This number has consistently increased since 2006.

Of course, this is a very broad generalization including so many variables related to waterfront home sales, luxury homes sales etc. but it is important to see our annual trends to get a better overview of our Lake Norman home sales and price trends.

Waterfront home sales trends since 2006:

Waterfront homes have experienced more steady rises and falls in both volume an prices.  After peaking in 2006 in volume, the number of sales plummeted 57% by 2008 and since then have steadily increased by a total of 72%.  At the same time our average sales price and price per square foot peaked in 2007/2008 and have been consistently falling since that time.  Since their peak, the average sales price has dropped 22% and the average price per square foot has dropped 29%.  Finally, the average days on market has increase 3 fold since 2008.

Our waterfront market has such a diversity of types of properties, from luxury estates to single-wide mobile homes and from open main channel water to end of tiny coves that to truly understand your own market you will need to look at the sales by price-range and by age of the property as well.  But, this overview is a good indication of our overall waterfront housing trends.

I would agree that most of the common terms to describe the current national housing market also apply to our Lake Norman real estate market:

• Erratic
• Fits and Starts
• Hopeful
• Comeback
• Cautious
• Rocky Bottom
• A light at the end of the tunnel
• The worst is over
• Price declines are coming to an end
• Home prices won’t hit bottom unitl the end of 2012 or early 2013
• Prices are stabilizing
• Shadow inventory could stall the market’s recovery
• Foreclosures May delay housing rebound to 2013

I will focus on 2012 in my annual forecast in the next few weeks!

Learn More About Life in Lake Norman:

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Lake Norman, Our Inland Sea

There was a rather disturbing article in Sunday’s Charlotte Observer:  Housing glut looms behind region’s ‘shadow inventory’.   It is not the whole issue of shadow inventory that is disturbing but rather the tone of the article, starting with the ominous title itself.  Home buyers are already extraordinarily nervous, why add relatively useless fuel to this fire?

Before I go any further, I need to address the definition of shadow inventory which is widely disputed:  The Shadow Inventory Debate.  For the sake of this article, I am defining shadow inventory as any home where there is a delinquent mortgage and has not been foreclosed upon by the lien holder.  While most of these are not listed for sale and may not be for years, some homes currently on the market in Lake Norman have been in the foreclosure process for several years but the sellers have been preemptive and have listed their homes as distressed.

If you are a regular reader you know two things about this blog, I love analyzing and interpreting the very specific numbers and data for Lake Norman’s housing market and I work hard to separate our local market from the broad brush media headlines about real estate.

While you might think that the Charlotte Observer’s article is specific enough to be applicable to our Lake Norman housing market, it simply isn’t and here is why:

The Facts:

Distressed Properties in Lake Norman’s Current Housing Market:

• Only 10% ( 76 ) of Lake Norman’s homes for sale listed in the MLS are “distressed”  (Short Sales, In Foreclosure Process or Bank Owned).
• 68% (52) of these distressed properties are short sales or in the foreclosure process so have not yet been foreclosed and would thus fall in to the category of  “shadow inventory” already based upon the definition above.
• An additional 5% (4) properties are “In the Foreclosure Process” which means a total of 73% of our distress properties currently on the market for sale would be considered ”shadow inventory” or properties in default or delinquent but not yet foreclosed upon.
• Only 20 of our 76 distressed properties for sale are foreclosures that are bank owned and have completed the foreclosure process.
• Take aways:  Today, distressed properties of any kind make up a relatively small portion of our current Lake Norman real estate market. And, a good portion of the distressed properties we do have are pre-foreclosures which would fall under the umbrella of shadow inventory indicating that Lake Norman homeowners are not waiting to be foreclosed upon but are electing to negotiate short sales if possible.  Yes, there may be many more properties in the foreclosure process that aren’t listed that are what the Charlotte Observer article are referring to but some at least are already on the market.

State of the levels of inventory of homes for sale in Lake Norman compared to prior years:

• Today we have 752 active listings in the entire Lake Norman (area 13 in our MLS) area as compared to 1023 at the same time last year (-26%), 1161 in 2009 (-35%), and 1406 in 2008 (-47%).
• Our number of active listings is about half of what they were in 2008 at the beginning of our recession!
• So, even if we were to increase our number of homes for sale in Lake Norman with “shadow inventory” in the future as predicted in the article by 2000+ over the next few years they are not going to hit us all at once and given our very low inventory right now most likely won’t be harmful but rather a boost to our sales.
• As David Benham was quoted in the article: ‘Demand, he said, outstrips supply…”Everything we have is flying off the shelf… The inventory’s not there”.
• Like several quoted in the article, I have a number of buyers looking for and waiting for more bargains to hit the market.  However, the tables have turned in the Lake Norman area to a certain extent because the demand for bargains is higher than the supply.

Price Range of Distressed Properties

• Of the 76 active distressed listings in Lake Norman today 26 or one third are under $300,000,  and two thirds are under $500,000.
• Of the 20 distressed sales last month, 17 were under $500,000.
• Clearly, our very lowest price ranges are most vulnerable to foreclosures at this time.  Several years ago we had a number of waterfront homes in higher price ranges as well as the left over inventory of new construction spec homes in higher end communities like The Point but these are gone and with no new construction of spec homes are not being replaced.

In general, home buyers looking in the Lake Norman area, just as else where, share a heavy skepticism about whether now is a good time to buy.   As the article said “The mere thought of shadow inventory can make potential buyers wary of investing of real estate.”  While a bit of caution is healthy, my concern is that buyers will hold out for bargains like we were selling two years ago and may not see again rather than take advantage of what we do have right now.

If you are one of these buyers, I simply can’t stress enough how important it is to get a thorough analysis of  the specific neighborhoods, areas and price range that you are considering and base your actions upon these facts not the broad brush news you read in the news.