I wish I had a nickle for every time someone asks me about the Lake Norman real estate market today and how prices compare to our peak in 2006! The only way to truly answer these questions is to compare an entire year of sales. This helps us to eliminate those pesky monthly ups and downs that can be impacted by one or two luxury home sales.
First, let’s look at how our 2015 real estate market of single family homes compared to last year:
2015 Versus 2014
This chart compares the average of the 1594 homes sold in 2015 to the average of the 1484 sold in 2014. As you can see, our volume of sales increased by 7% but our average sales price dropped by 3%. The good news is that it took on average 9% fewer days for a Lake Norman home to sell this year versus last year. A few more fun numbers: The average price per square foot in 2015 was $150.07 compared to 2014’s $149.32. So, did our home values increase this year? Yes, by .5%. And, in 2014 the average sales price to listing price was 96% and in 2015 is rose 1% to 97%. While subtle, these numbers indicate that homes are selling faster, for slightly more money and 1% closer to the listing price than in 2014.
Most economists use the median prices when analyzing real estate market data. So, above are the median numbers for Lake Norman’s real estate market in 2015 and 2014. As you can see, the median prices are quite a bit lower than the average prices. This is because rather than add up the total $ volume of 1594 sales and then divide by 1594 to get the average, the median is determined by literally drawing a line at the halfway mark, 797th sale and using that price. Half of our sales were below that number and half above. This method removes the impact of the extreme prices of our fewer luxury homes thereby giving us a more accurate picture of our overall market prices and trends. As you can see, prices in 2015 actually dropped by 1%. The good news is that homes sold 23% faster in 2015 vs 2014!
2015 Versus 2006
Now let’s take a look at how 2015 compared to our peak year in Lake Norman. Clearly, our number of sales are back but our average prices are still 3% lower. The most interesting number is the Days on Market which is still 63% higher than our peak. Just as an additional note, our average price per square foot in 2006 was $157.13 compared to 2015’s 150.07 so we are not quite back to our peak values. And, in 2006 single family homes sold on average for 98% of the listing price which is slightly higher than 2015’s 97%.
Above are the median numbers for 2015 versus 2006. In this case our average sales price was 5% lower than 2006 but our average days on the market was only 45% higher than 2006. In 2006 it took only 38 days for a listing to sell. The reason these median numbers of days on market are so much lower than the averages is again due to minimizing the luxury homes numbers. Higher-priced homes in Lake Norman take substantially longer to sell than lower priced home which skew our average numbers.
So, in a nutshell:
- The annual number of homes sold in Lake Norman is back to peak levels and have been on an upward trend every year since our bottom in 2009
- Overall home values in Lake Norman have not quite reached our peak numbers in 2006 but we are getting closer
- The length of time it takes of for a single family home to sell has been improving since 2009 with 2015 bringing them down 23% to 55 days but we are still well short of the 38 days in 2006.
Sales Volume back, home values recovering but not fully and homes are selling faster but not at the rate at our peak.
Questions? My next reports will be about waterfront homes…stay tuned!