Lake Norman Real Estate: What do recent housing sales at The Point tell us?

 The Point  in Mooresville NC is arguably the most prestigious luxury community in all of Lake Norman and it is also the largest with 18 miles of beautiful Lake Norman’s shoreline.  So, when I see interesting changes in housing numbers in The Point I try to put them in context to see if they are in fact an indicator of a significant shift or trend. 

Back on September 18, 2008 I wrote:  The Point in Lake Norman: A Case Study #2.  In this report I noted that we had 123 active listings which translated at the time to a whopping 41-month supply of inventory!  Then, in: Lake Norman Real Estate: Affordable Housing at The Point…Wow! on July 25, 2009 I noted that we had 114 active listings and had sold on 19 homes since the beginning of the year or a 38-month supply of active listings.

Today, the number of active listings in The Point has dropped to 82 or 33% below a year ago September.  In today’s buyers’ market this number alone is good news.  But, it gets even more interesting when you look at the recent sales numbers.  In this past October we had 9 closed sales in The Point which is a significant jump from any month for several years.  This makes for a total of 36 sales year-to-date in 2009 in The Point.  But, as of July 25, 2009 we only had 19 sales so we have almost doubled our sales for the year in The Point in the past 4 months.  At 36 sales we have already surpassed the 2008 sales total for the year of 33.  And, we have 7 pending sales and 5 conditional sales that will most likely close by the end of 2009 for a potential total annual sales of 48 almost half of which will have been in this winter 4th quarter.  If we average 5 sales per month we would have dropped to about a 16-month supply of active listings. While still high, this number is less than half of the 41 months we had in September of 2008. 

What does such a strong fourth quarter mean?  

While it is still clearly a buyer’s market in The Point, I think these numbers are significant enough to indicate a positive trend.  Inventory is dropping and sales are increasing.  While half of the inventory and sales are homes priced under $1million, there are FOUR homes priced well over $1million currently under contract and poised to close.  It would seem that some of our luxury home buyers are jumping off of the fence, enticed by some great price reductions and perhaps a sense that now is a good time to buy.

One example of an incredible bargain is a waterfront lot foreclosure that closed this past week in The Point for $400,000.  This lot sold for about half the market value.  It has very good water and views and is about an acre of a flat to gently sloping lot…just what most home buyers and builders are seeking.  At our peak this lot was probably worth over $1million.

Here are some interesting statistics related to homes at The Point: 

Active Listings:

•  82 today  (months of supply = 9.8 if use the past 30 days or 16.5 if use last 3 months)
• 114 in July of  this year  (months of supply = 38)
• 123 in September of 2008 (months of supply = 41)
• Peak of about 140

Pending Sales:  7

Conditional Sales: 5

Contingent Sales: 2

Solds:

• Since October 1, 2009:      9  (25 % of this year’s sales were in October!) 
• Past 3 month or since 8/11/09:      14
• Same 3-month period in 2008:     7
• Same 3-month period in 2007:     14 
• Year-to-date 2009:      36
• All of 2008:      33
• All of 2007:      76

Price ranges of homes currently on the market:

• $500,000:   5 
• $600,000:   9
• $700,000:  6
• $800,000:  15
• $900,000:  4

Contingent Sales:

• $699,000
• $2,199,000

Conditional Sales:

• $749,000
• $899,000
• $1,495,000
• $2,750,000
• $3,950,000

Pending Sales:

• $578,500
• $695,000
• $749,900
• $779,500
• $1,599,000