For those of you new to Lake Norman real estate, Crescent Communitiesrepresent some of the largest, most upscale planned communities on Lake Norman. Originally the real estate arm of Duke Energy when Lake Norman was first created in the 1960’s, “Crescent Resources is (now) a real estate development and land management company”. They still have active sales offices for The Point & The Farms.
On August 26th of last year in I wrote an article with an update about the financial health of Crescent Resources, LLC and a spread sheet real estate analysis of the most notable Crescent Communities on Lake Norman: How are Lake Norman’s Crescent Communities Faring in 2010? I did the same real estate sales analysis today to provide you with some insight into our 2011 activity in these same Crescent Communities:
* As always these numbers are compiled from the Charlotte Regional Multiple Listing Services
For the sake of comparison, here is my chart from last August:
There are both stunning and unremarkable contrasts between these two reports. Here are the highlights:
- Active Listings have dropped 8.5% overall with only minor variances by community. Note that Falls Cove has dropped to near zero as they were the hardest hit by the recession.
- Conditional/Active Due Diligence contracts in total are again almost identical. However, in 2010 The Point and The Peninsula represented 73% whereas today they are only 40% of the total. Very recent sales have been spread fairly evenly across the board.
- Once again The Point leads in Pending sales contracts but I was quite shocked to find none in The Peninsula or The Harbour. With 6 pending sales The Farms has clearly picked up significantly which will be reflected in other numbers as well. (New construction returned in the newest phase of The Farms early this year.)
- It is not fair or meaningful to compare the total closed sales since my analysis last year was over 2 months later in the year than this one. That said, it is important to note the relative decline in sales in The Point, The Harbour and Sailview and the uptick in The Peninsula, The Farms and Northview Harbor.
- The Months of Supply column is where we see some note worthy numbers. Overall the Crescent Communites’ months of supply of homes for sale increased from 16.8 to 19.2. The Point, The Peninsula, The Harbour and Sailview all have significant increases (which is not good) while The Farms and Northview Harbour have experienced significant improvements. Keep in mind that 6-8 months of supply is our goal in a balances real estate market.
- The Days on Market numbers improved this year in all 7 communities. Once again The Harbour came in with the best numbers.
- The % of the sales price versus the listing price were remarkable similar in every community except The Harbour. I took a closer look and two high-end waterfront homes in The Harbour sold for significantly less than their asking prices this spring which weighed heavily on their numbers.
- The average $ per square foot for sold properties are always greatly impacted by the number of waterfront luxury estate sales. This is particularly evident in The Point and The Peninsula but is true of all of the waterfront communities. So far in 2011 The Point and The Peninsula are almost identical which reflects an improvement in The Point and a decline in The Peninsula. The Harbour, Sailview and Falls Cove also experienced declines.
So how do these Crescent Communities compare to the entire Lake Norman real estate market? Together they have experienced a 20% decline in sales compared to 10.7% decline in all of Lake Norman. We have, through May 30th of this year, a 19-month supply of homes compared to the Crescent Communities 19.2 however clearly The Point, The Peninsula, The Harbour and Sailview are experiencing weaker sales and have higher inventories of active listings resulting in higher numbers of months of supply.
The biggest winners so far in 2011 are The Farms and Northview Harbour.
The weakest links have been The Harbour and Sailview. However, I would be remiss if I didn’t point out that when I did a detailed sales analysis of The Point at the end of March of this year their months of supply stood at 13.5; significantly below the 25-months based upon the current number of active listings (10 more) and the average sales per month in 2011.
Our Lake Norman real estate market is a bit like a yo-yo right now with no consistent, reliable trends to latch on to which is why I do analysis like this one to provide some insight into real time activity in Lake Norman. I’m looking forward to doing my monthly Lake Norman Real Estate Hot Sheet on the 21st!
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