Want the very latest insight into our Lake Norman real estate market? So do I which is why, every month, I do a snapshot analysis of the middle two weeks of the month to get a sense of where our Lake Norman real estate market is at this very moment…an almost live insight into the heartbeat of the Lake Norman housing market. These Hot Sheet reports serve as pretty good predictors of our short-term future housing sales.
While hard to explain, our Lake Norman real estate market seems to be oblivious to the crazy global economy and US downgrade. After a relatively strong June and July, our housing numbers are continuing at about the same pace despite it all. The report below would seem to be an indication that our August Lake Norman real estate sales may actually exceed our August and even September 2010 sales.
Lake Norman Real Estate’s Two-Week Hot Sheet
* The above chart is a summary of today’s “Hot Sheet” from the Charlotte Multiple Listing Service for single family homes in all of Lake Norman (area 13). These numbers represent a real time snapshot of the past two week’s activity. (August 6 – 20th). As always, I have included the past 6 months so that you can put these numbers in perspective.
- New listings: The number of new listings coming on the market continues to decline now that our Spring/Summer busy season is beginning to wind down. If you add our new listings to the 22 back-on-market we only had a total of 96 Lake Norman properties added to our housing inventory. At the same time we had 46 sales closed and 42 new contracts for a net increase of 8 homes on the market. At this point our overall number of active listings/homes for sale in Lake Norman is consistently dropping but is still too high compared to our sales. (We are still in double-digit months of inventory).
- The number of properties that came back-on-the-market, most likely due to cancelled contracts, remain about equal to our average trends in 2011.
- The number of price changes increased again. Are sellers getting anxious that they are going to miss this summer selling season?
- Pending home sales jumped up 38%. This indicates our closed sales for the next 30 days should be slightly higher than the past months’. Pending home sales are contracts that have passed all of their conditions/contingencies/Due Diligence Deadlines and are just sitting ready to close.
- The number of closed sales of 46 in the past two weeks is slightly higher than last months’. So far this month 55 closed sales have been reported to our MLS compared to 45 last month, 44 in June, 30 in May, 50 in April, 34 in March, 20 in February, 18 in January, 60 in December. My best guess is that we will close more than 80 real estate contracts in August and perhaps as many as 100 which would substantially exceed August 2010’s 78 sales. This may, if fact, be the best August for Lake Norman home sales since 2007!
- Our Contingent, Conditional sales and our new category of Actives/Due Diligence remain fairly stable. These represent the most recently accepted offers and reflect future sales in September/October.
Given the erratic nature of our 2011 Lake Norman real estate market, I find it prudent to literally take it one month at a time rather than try to guesstimate our long-term market. Rather than a double-dip, it looks like 2011 may eek out sales equal to 2010 if you can continue the trend of the last few months. With close to 14 months of supply of active listings compared to the national average of 9.4 months and a balanced real estate market of 6-8 months, we clearly have a ways to go for a full recovery. Economic uncertainty has led to a lack of confidence in many home buyers. However, I am encouraging my buyers to buy if they find a good home at a good price. While I don’t see prices going up in Lake Norman this year or even next, I also don’t see that many truly exceptional bargains. Prices in general are low as are interest rates. In my opinion, now through the end of 2011 may represent a great opportunity for Lake Norman home buyers. 2012 is looking very murky due to the global economy but our Lake Norman housing market seems to march to be beat of its’ own drummer. If we see a turn around in consumer confidence then we are playing a new ball game.
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