Friday Hot Sheet: June 12, 2009*
I must admit I have been exceptionally busy these past several months which had increased my curiosity about our current home sales numbers. Above is a chart with today’s “Hot Sheet” numbers from the Charlotte Regional Multiple Listing Service for single family homes in all of Lake Norman (Area 13). These numbers represent a snapshot of the past two weeks activity. As always, I have included the prior 6 months so that you can put these numbers into perspective.
Here are some highlights:
New listings crept back up just a bit. Unfortunately, for our market to turn the corner we need the active listings to drop back to a 6-8 months supply.
The significant jump in homes that came back on the market due to cancelled contracts does not surprise me considering the multitude of difficulties we are experiencing related to loans and appraisals. While sales are up, the number of canceled contracts out number these sales by 40%!
Wow, look at the number of price changes! Prices continue to drop as sellers increase their understanding of the market and as we see an increase in foreclosures, bank-owned properties and short sales.
Pending sales are those that are past all inspections and loan contingencies and are simply waiting to close. We have had a 32% increase in pending sales when compared to a month ago. This would indicate that closed sales should be higher in the next few weeks than the same time last month.
Unfortunately, the number of contingent and conditional sales dropped 24% versus last month. These would be new sales that are still going through the inspection and loan processes. These are our best numbers for forecasting the number of closed sales for next month. It could be possible that our sales actually will peak this month and then start to drop.
Once again, I can’t stress enough the importance of the number of months of homes for sale is when trying to determine our “bottom”. If we assume we will have about 90 closed sales in June, with a current inventory of 1609 active listings we still have 18 months of supply of homes for sale. We are heading in the right direction but are not out of the woods yet! Lake Norman has come to life in the past month; the water is warm, school is out and the boats, jet skis and water sports of all kinds are going on
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