Want the very latest insight into our Lake Norman real estate market? So do I which is why, every month, I do a snapshot analysis of the middle two weeks of the month to get a sense of where our Lake Norman real estate market is at this very moment…an almost live insight into the heartbeat of the Lake Norman housing market. These Hot Sheet reports serve as pretty good predictors of our short-term future housing sales.
After a rather dramatic decline in May, it looks like July will continue the relatively positive trend starting with our June sales. The report below signs that our July and even August Lake Norman real estate sales may come close to meeting our 2010 sales.
Lake Norman Real Estate’s Two-Week Hot Sheet
* The above chart is a summary of today’s “Hot Sheet” from the Charlotte Multiple Listing Service for single family homes in all of Lake Norman (area 13). These numbers represent a real time snapshot of the past two week’s activity. (July 7 – 21st). As always, I have included the past 6 months so that you can put these numbers in perspective.
- New listings: The number of new listings coming on the market has started to decline now that our Spring/Summer busy season is beginning to wind down. If you add our new listings to the 19 back-on-market we only had a total of 98 Lake Norman properties added to our housing inventory compared to 128 properties last month. At the same time we had 42 sales closed and 43 new contracts for a net increase of 13 homes on the market. At this point our overall number of active listings/homes for sale in Lake Norman remains lower than last year’s but are still too high compared to our sales. (We are still in double-digit months of inventory).
- The number of properties that came back-on-the-market, most likely due to cancelled contracts, remain about equal to our average trends in 2011.
- The number of price changes increased slightly after June’s decline. Are sellers getting anxious that they are going to miss this summer selling season?
- Pending home sales dropped slightly but remain fairly strong. This indicates our closed sales for the next 30 days should be slightly higher than the past months’. Pending home sales are contracts that have passed all of their conditions/contingencies/Due Diligence Deadlines and are just sitting ready to close. Last July in the same two-week period we recorded almost identical numbers which would indicate that we have the potential to meet last July’s 81 closed sales.
- The number of closed sales of 42 in the past two weeks is marginally better than last month. So far this month 45 closed sales have been reported to our MLS compared to 44 last month, 30 in May, 50 in April, 34 in March, 20 in February, 18 in January, 60 in December. My best guess is that we will close about 80 real estate contracts in July which will equal July of 2010. Yes, we should be seeing increases but after a patchy start to 2011 it will be a good sign if we continue to match our 2010 numbers.
- Our Contingent, Conditional sales and our new category of Actives/Due Diligence are somewhate improved for the second month in a row after sliding backwards since February. These represent the most recently accepted offers and reflect future sales in August/September.
Given the erratic nature of our 2011 Lake Norman real estate market, I find it prudent to literally take it one month at a time rather than try to guesstimate our long-term market. Rather than a double-dip, it looks like 2011 may eek out sales equal to 2010. With close to 15 months of supply of active listings compared to the national average of 9.5 months and a balanced real estate market of 6-8 months, we clearly have a ways to go for a full recovery. Uncertainty has led to a lack of confidence in many home buyers. However, I am encouraging my buyers to buy if they find a good home at a good price. While I don’t see prices going up in Lake Norman this year or even next, I also don’t see that many truly exceptional bargains. Prices in general are low as are interest rates. In my opinion, now through the end of 2010 may represent a great opportunity for Lake Norman home buyers. Once 2012 hits it sounds like most economists expect a slow but steady improvement of the housing market. If we see a turn around in consumer confidence then we are playing a new ball game.
Below is our July 2010 Hot Sheet for you to refer to for comparison:
Lake Norman Real Estate Hot Sheet
July 21, 2010
Learn More About Life in Lake Norman: