Lake Norman Monthly Sales Chart for 7 Years

*Please note that all of my numbers are for single family homes. They come from the Charlotte Region Multiple Listing Service and will not include sales that took place outside of our MLS.  **I have made an adjustment of  the totals reflecting the ACTUAL  sales  every month in 2009, 2010 and 2011 and the totals in the prior calendar years.  The columns may not add up but I do my best with what I have to work!

Price trends since 1998:

As you can see, our volume of Lake Norman home sales peaked in 2005 while our average sales price and price per square foot peaked in 2007.  But, since our significant drop in 2009, our average sales price for all homes in Lake Norman has remained fairly stable while our number of home sales has increased about 16%.

This past year’s average price per square foot of $136 is not that far off of 2005′s $144 despite a drop to half the number of home sales.

Another interesting trend is the average days a home was on the market in Lake Norman (DOM which is the last column on the right).  This number has consistently increased since 2006.

Of course, this is a very broad generalization including so many variables related to waterfront home sales, luxury homes sales etc. but it is important to see our annual trends to get a better overview of our Lake Norman home sales and price trends.

Waterfront home sales trends since 2006:

Waterfront homes have experienced more steady rises and falls in both volume an prices.  After peaking in 2006 in volume, the number of sales plummeted 57% by 2008 and since then have steadily increased by a total of 72%.  At the same time our average sales price and price per square foot peaked in 2007/2008 and have been consistently falling since that time.  Since their peak, the average sales price has dropped 22% and the average price per square foot has dropped 29%.  Finally, the average days on market has increase 3 fold since 2008.

Our waterfront market has such a diversity of types of properties, from luxury estates to single-wide mobile homes and from open main channel water to end of tiny coves that to truly understand your own market you will need to look at the sales by price-range and by age of the property as well.  But, this overview is a good indication of our overall waterfront housing trends.

I would agree that most of the common terms to describe the current national housing market also apply to our Lake Norman real estate market:

• Erratic
• Fits and Starts
• Hopeful
• Comeback
• Cautious
• Rocky Bottom
• A light at the end of the tunnel
• The worst is over
• Price declines are coming to an end
• Home prices won’t hit bottom unitl the end of 2012 or early 2013
• Prices are stabilizing
• Shadow inventory could stall the market’s recovery
• Foreclosures May delay housing rebound to 2013

I will focus on 2012 in my annual forecast in the next few weeks!

Learn More About Life in Lake Norman:

Lake Norman Relocation Resources

Relocating to Lake Norman

Lake Norman Participation Sports Resource Guide

Lake Norman, Our Inland Sea

In today’s real estate market, both here in the Lake Norman area as well as the entire country, economic data changes daily.  This is especially true of  the number of home foreclosures.  And it is particularly difficult to stay on top of our local numbers as they are not as readily available.

That is why I got pretty excited when I learned about  this interactive map on the  National Public Radio’s website: Interactive Map:  The Economy Where You Live.  If you click on the link a map of the United States will appear with the option to search three different numbers BY COUNTY: 

1. Foreclosure Rates
2. Unemployment Rates
3. Median Household Income

These numbers are updated regularly so you can keep track of trends by county not only where you might be buying but where you are currently living as well.

Today’s numbers for our four Lake Norman counties:

Iredell (including Mooresville, Troutman,Statesville):

• Foreclosures:  1 in 1662 (one out of every 1662 homes are currently in foreclosure)
• Unemployment rate: 13%

Mecklenburg (including Charlotte, Huntersville, Cornelius, Davidson):

• Foreclosures:  1 in 213
• Unemployment rate: 11.7%

Catawba (including Sherrills Ford, Terrell, Hickory):

• Foreclosures:  1 in 2479
• Unemployment rate: 14.9%

Lincoln (Including Denver, Lincolnton):

• Foreclosures:  1 in 1401
• Unemployment rate: 14.5%

While I have included which Lake Norman cities fall in each county, it is important to know that there are many other cities in these counties, especially Mecklenburg which includes the greater Charlotte metropolitan area.  It is clear that the more densely populated areas in Mecklenburg County are experiencing a much greater number of foreclosures than the other counties surrounding Lake Norman.

In a report released by RealtyTrac today, the foreclosure related filings in August were ranked by state, the worst being:

1. Nevada:  1 in 62
2. Florida: 1 in 140
3. California: 1 in 144
4. Arizona: 1 in 150
5. Michigan: 1 in 234

According to this report, one in every 357 U.S. homes was subjected to a foreclosure-related filing in August.

Overall, the Lake Norman area is doing considerably better than the country but the numbers are not currently trending in a positive direction. 

I plan on checking these maps on a regular basis to watch for changes!

Lake Norman Hot Sheet:  July 13, 2009

 There has been so much speculation in the economic news about the U.S. housing market that I decided we needed a reality check.  There is nothing better to shed some light on our Lake Norman Real Estate market than a visit to our Multiple Listing Service.  The above chart is today’s “Hot Sheet” from the Charlotte Multiple Listing Service for single family homes in all of Lake Norman (Area 13).  These numbers represent a real time snapshot of the past two week’s activity.  As always, I have included the past 6 months so that you can put these numbers in perspective.

Here are some highlights:

New listings decreased by 22%…the lowest number this year!  After a peak last month there are consistent signs that our inventory levels are heading downward.  This is one key component of a bottom.  Once our inventory is drop to a 6-8 month of supply we will be back in a balanced housing  market here in Lake Norman.

The number of listings coming “Back on the Market” due to a canceled contract is still extremely high.  Considering our pending and contingent/conditional numbers are dropping, then more homes fell out of contract than went under contract in the past two week.  This is again a sign of the tremendous challenges involved in loans, appraisals and perhaps a lack of buyer’s confidence in the economy and/or housing market.

The number of price changes are back down to our April levels.  This could be simply because the decreasing number of active listings is in line with the decreasing number of price changes when compared to their peak last month.

Pending home sales dropped 18.5% compared to last months high.  If you follow the national housing market you will know that there is always much focus on pending sales since these are sales that are past conditions and contingencies and are waiting to close.  Pending sales are looked at as the best indication of future closed sales.  These have been strong nationally which is one reason why some of the media has been optimistic about the national housing market hitting bottom.  However, here in Lake Norman, all numbers are pointing to the fact that June was perhaps the strongest month we will have this year and that sales will continue to decline through the end of 2009.

The number of closed sales remained equal to last month’s hot sheet.  What I find interesting is that despite last month’s high pending sales of 54, we in fact only closed 44 in the past two weeks.  Last month’s strong pending sales numbers did not result in higher closed sales this month, probably due to the number of contracts that failed to close.

Unfortunately, the number of new contracts, conditional and contingent sales, dropped for the second straight month.  This further supports my feelings that our July and August numbers are going to be lower than June’s.

As always, I will close with a note about our months of supply of active listings.  If we presume that we  will close about 80 sales in July and we currently have 1582 active listings, we still have about a 20-month supply of homes for sale.  It is still a buyers market here in Lake Norman!

Our Lake Norman housing market continues to change rapidly.  What was true even a month ago may not be true today.  That said, here is the summary of Lake Norman single family home sales and statistics for this past May.  (The period ending yesterday):

 Active Listings:  Our total number of active listings decreased slightly.  While they are high, considering this is Lake Norman’s peak selling/listing season at a time when we might expect increased inventory, this is a VERY good sign.  I can’t emphasize enough how important it is for Lake Norman’s inventory to drop.

Contingent Sales:  This represents the number of homes that are under contract but are contingent upon the buyers selling their own homes.  In a buyers market, this is not a strong position for a seller as it may take months for the buyer’s property to sell.  This number is double that of last month which in my opinion indicates the more sellers are willing to take a risk in order to sell their homes

Conditional Sales:  At 56, the number of  homes under contract that are in the early stages of negotiations with conditions for loans and inspections is 51% higher than last month.  This is an indicator of future closed sales.  There most certainly has been an increase in showings so we may see some higher closed sales over the next few months.

Pending Sales:  94 pending sales is 12% higher than last month.  These are sales that are just waiting to close which would indicate that our June closings should be higher than this month.  

Closed Sales:  I must admit I was a bit disappointed to see our closed sales at only 67.  Closed sales actually dropped 3% versus last month.  

Summary versus 2008:   Lake Norman home sales volume dropped 26% compared to May 2008.  The average price of the homes sold dropped 21% compared to 2008 and the average days a home was on the market increased 36%.  The most important of these three numbers is the drop in the average price of the homes sold.  Throughout the country it has been the drop in prices that has resulted in an increase in sales.  Bargains are selling and are what will continue to drive our Lake Norman market until consumer confidence returns.

5-Year Comparison of Lake Norman Home Sales By Month 

* Please note that all of my numbers come from the Charlotte Region Multiple Listing Service and will not include sales that took place outside of our MLS.

**While my totals on this chart for 2008 sales is 870, when I search on our MLS for the entire year they give me a slightly higher number of 916 so I will use that as our official number for the sake of this analysis.

Summary:  With 67 closed sales and 1598 active listings in the Lake Norman area, we still have a 23.8-month supply of homes for sale.  While this is substantially better than the last quarter, a balanced housing market should have about 6-8 months of inventory so we still have a long way to go to achieve a solid housing market.  If you look at the chart above it is a bit sobering to realize we sold three times as many homes in May of 2006 as we did this past month! 

For more insight into the Lake Norman real estate market:

 Lake Norman Real Estate:  Why is it so hard to buy a home right now?

Lake Norman Real Estate’s April 2009 Sales Analysis

Lake Norman Real Estate:  The Big Picture

I couldn’t resist having a little fun while providing an update of our Lake Norman luxury home sales.  Above is a home we locals refer to as the “Taco Bell” house.  It is located in The Point on the Brawley Peninsula and serves as a great landmark when out boating on the lake!

So, what is happening with luxury homes in Lake Norman?  In gerneral, sales above $750,000 have been quite slow: 

Active Listings: As you can see, we have 456 homes priced over $750,000 in Lake Norman and 12 have sold since the beginning of the year (1/1/09 – 3/9/09).  This means we have a 76 month supply of homes.

Solds:  12 homes sold since January 1, 2009 versus 29 in the same period of 2008.  This is a 59% drop in the number of sales.

Other Interesting Statistics regarding the 12 sales:

• Average Size = 5,421 square feet
• Average listing to selling price differential = 93%
• Average $ per square foot = $195

What happens when we separate out waterfront homes?

• 8 of the 12 sales were waterfront
• Average Size = 5445
• Average Sales Price = $1,130,812
• Average $ per square foot = $208 vs $169 for non-waterfront homes

At the peak of our Lake Norman real estate market waterfront homes were selling, on average, for at least $300 per square foot, waterview homes sold for about $150 per square foot. 

While this is just a snapshot of our most recent luxury home sales, it is fascinating to see that waterfront home prices seem to have dropped by almost $100 per square foot.  My own observations as I show waterfront properties would substantiate this.

Bottom line?  This spring/summer should be a GREAT time to buy waterfront homes on Lake Norman.  They have been hit the hardest during this downturn because they went up the most during the strong years and I can only assume that once our market turns around once again the limited supply of waterfront homes will drive the prices back up!

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