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Friday Hot Sheet: June 12, 2009

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I must admit I have been exceptionally busy these past several months which had increased my curiosity about our current home sales numbers.  Above is a chart with today’s “Hot Sheet” numbers from the Charlotte Regional Multiple Listing Service for single family homes in all of Lake Norman (Area 13).  These numbers represent a snapshot of the past two weeks activity.  As always, I have included the prior 6 months so that you can put these numbers into perspective.

Here are some highlights:

New listings crept back up just a bit.  Unfortunately, for our market to turn the corner we need the active listings to drop back to a 6-8 months supply.

The significant jump in homes that came back on the market due to cancelled contracts does not surprise me considering the multitude of difficulties we are experiencing related to loans and appraisals.  While sales are up,  the number of canceled contracts out number these sales by 40%!

Wow, look at the number of price changes!  Prices continue to drop as sellers increase their understanding of the market and as we see an increase in foreclosures, bank-owned properties and short sales.

Pending sales are those that are past all inspections and loan contingencies and are simply waiting to close.  We have had a 32% increase in pending sales when compared to a month ago.  This would indicate that closed sales should  be higher in the next few weeks than the same time last month.

Unfortunately, the number of contingent and conditional sales dropped 24% versus last month.  These would be new sales that are still going through the inspection and loan processes.  These are our best numbers for forecasting the number of closed sales for next month.  It could be possible that our sales actually will peak this month and then start to drop.

Once again, I can’t stress enough the importance of the number of months of homes for sale is when trying to determine our “bottom”.   If we assume we will have about 90 closed sales in June, with a current inventory of 1609 active listings we still have 18 months of supply of homes for sale.  We are heading in the right direction but are not out of the woods yet! 

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Lake Norman Real Estate’s Friday Hot Sheet

April 17, 2009

* Data from Charlotte Regional MLS

Above is a chart with today’s “Hot Sheet” numbers from the Charlotte Regional Multiple Listing Service for single family homes in the Lake Norman area (13/1 – 13/5).  These numbers represent a snapshot of the past two weeks of activity. As always I have included prior months so that you can put these numbers into context.

Here are some highlights:

New listings are increasing.  While this is normal for this time of year, our total number of active listings in the Lake Norman area has climbed back up to 1623 at a time when sales are still very low so our conditions are actually worsening.  If we combine the new and back on the market listings during this two week period we increased our number of active listings by 197 while the number of contingent/conditional/pending and solds resulted in a total of 78 homes being removed from our active inventory for a net gain of 119.  The single most important thing we need to see before we can conclude that our Lake Norman housing market has bottomed out is a reduction of the number of active listings to about a 6-8 months of supply. Right now we have a 35 months of supply.

The number of homes coming back on the market has again increased slightly.  These are homes that were under contracts and were cancelled.  The fact that twice as many homes had canceled contracts than closed shows the volatility in our market! 

Price changes remained identical to last month.  Sellers are reducing their prices because of the slow market.

The number of pending sales increased slightly.  These are the homes under contract that have gone through all of their inspections, obtaining loan approval and a ready to close.

The number of contingent and conditional sales dropped by 30% versus last month.  These are the homes that went under contract in the past two weeks and would indicate that our future sales are not increasing and are infact decreasing slightly at a time when we are hitting our peak Lake Norman home sales season.

 So far in April we have had 32 home sales close compared to 49 in the same period last year.  This is a drop of 35%.  The average price dropped 11.5%.

Clearly, we are not out of the woods yet!  I personally have seen an increase in showings and sales in the first-time buyer price ranges which are most likely a result of the $8000 credit/rebate.  Sales requiring jumbo loans are hampered by the higher rates and conditions.  I am going to write a separate article about jumbo loans this next week.

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Lake Norman Real Estate’s Friday Hot Sheet

March 20, 2009

Above is a chart with today’s “Hot Sheet” numbers from the Charlotte Multiple Listing Services for single family homes in Lake Norman (Area 13).  These numbers represent a snapshot of the past TWO WEEKS of activity.  As always, I have provided the Hot Sheets for the prior 5 months to enable you to put these numbers into context. 

Here are some highlights:

New Listings remained about the same as last month but are very high if you consider that only 19 properties closed during this same time period.  If we add these 132 new listings with the 46 listings that came back on the market we have a total of 178 new active listings compared to only 76 properties going under contract or sold.  With a net gain of over 100 new listings added to our already overstocked conditions we are not seeing any improvement in our numbers.

The number of homes coming back on the market increased slightly.  This indicates we still have volatility in our Lake Norman market and that contracts are falling apart more frequently than they are closing.

The number of price changes took a significant jump in the past several weeks.  Sellers are becoming more convinced that prices around Lake Norman have dropped and that it is necessary to lower their asking prices in order to keep up with the downward trend in sales prices.

The number of pending sales increased.  This is the best indication of future close sales.  While they remain low, at least they are trending higher!

The number of closed sales dropped when compared to the same two weeks in February.  It looks like March may be the second lowest month in the number of closed sales that Lake Norman has had in the past years.  Will we get the spring bounce everyone is hoping for?

Finally, the contingent and conditional sales increased what is a hopeful sign.  Since these represent the most recent activity, this may be an indication of increased closed sales in April.

As I said last month, the good news is that home buyers are out looking in Lake Norman in increased numbers.  As one agent told me when I asked how his buyers liked one of my listings:  “My buyers are like a deer in the headlights.  They are afraid to make a move until they feel more confident in the economy.”

With interest rates dipping back into the 4.75% range again after the Federal Reserve report this past week I am hopeful many of the buyers who are sitting on the fence might be encouraged to move forward with a purchase!

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