Want the very latest insight into our Lake Norman real estate market? So do I which is why, every month, I do a snapshot analysis of the middle two weeks of the month to get a sense of where our Lake Norman real estate market is at this very moment…an almost live insight into the heartbeat of the Lake Norman housing market.  These Hot Sheet reports serve as pretty good predictors of our short-term Lake Norman real estate market.

Well, last month I was very enthused by our string of “hot” months.  Unfortunately, a bit of doubt is beginning to creep in to my perspective of our current Lake Norman housing market.  Instead of a consistent showing of improving numbers across the board, there are some hiccups that indicate to me that we once again may see some mild ups and downs in the coming months.

Lake Norman Real Estate’s Two-Week Hot Sheet

4/21/2012

* The above chart is a summary of today’s “Hot Sheet” from the Charlotte Multiple Listing Service for single family homes in all of Lake Norman (area 13).  These numbers represent a real time snapshot of the past two week’s activity.  (April 7th – 21st).  As always, I have included the past 6 months so that you can put these numbers in perspective.

I created this additional chart comparing just the April Hot Sheets for the past 3 years to help put our April 2012 numbers in perspective with the past Aprils, not just the past 6 months:

April Hot Sheet Numbers for the Past 4 Years

Highlights:

• New listings: While our new listings are up from the winter months, they are still lower than any April since I have been keeping these records. If you add our new listings to the 26 back-on-market we had a total of 138 Lake Norman properties added to our housing inventory in the past two weeks compared to last April’s 117, 193 in April 2010 and 197 in April 2009.  As of this morning the total number of active listings in Lake Norman had increased from our all time low of 752 in January back up to 933 which is still extremely low historically.  The reason these low numbers are good news is because keeping our inventory low will help stabilize our own Lake Norman housing market no matter what is happening in other areas or states. That said, we are trending a bit higher this month with new listings.

• The number of properties that came back-on-the-market, most likely due to cancelled contracts,  jumped up after several very low months. However, compared to the past four April’s they are low with the exception of last April. While challenges continue related to securing financing due to tight restrictions on home loans by lenders, they are improving a bit.  Every loan approved warrants a celebration!

• The number of price changes were up compared to 5 of the past 6 months but down substantially from the past 3 April’s.  Considering sales are fairly good, this would indicate that prices are stabilizing.  There is no doubt that overpriced listings are sitting until they are reduced to the “magic” number that generates offers, even multiple offers.

• Pending home sales are actually the weakest category on this chart.   This indicates our closed sales for the next 30 days may not be as strong as they will be further into spring/summer. Pending home sales are contracts that have passed all of their conditions/contingencies/Due Diligence Deadlines and are just sitting ready to close.

• The number of closed sales reported in the past two weeks improved from last month’s  and is more in line with our  late 2011 numbers.  They were also higher than three of the past 4 April’s.  So far this entire month 43 closed sales have been reported to our MLS compared to 43 last month,  34 in February,  21 in January,  33 in December, 37 in November, 47 in October, 29 in August, 55 in June, 45 in July, 44 in June, 30 in May, 50 in April, 34 in March and 20 in February 2011.  Considering all of these numbers, my best guess is that we will close about 80 single family home sales this month and may end up slightly below April 2011 and April 2010… the first such drop in 2012.

• Our Conditional and Contingent sales are lower than the last 2 month’s but better than the past 4 April’s.  As the very most recent properties to go under contract, this number coupled with a bit lower pending sales makes me pause long enough to loose a bit of my confidence that our Lake Norman housing market is on a sustainable path to recovery.  Each month will help to support this or undercut this.

Overall this month (not just the past 2 weeks) our conditional sales are very strong but our pending sales are low.  This indicates to me that we may not have a strong ending to our April sales but we should pick up again in May/June.  So, inventory remains low, sales are at least steady if not improving.  Not quite as strong a statement as the past few months.

With our range of the months of supply of active listings at about 11 months using our 83 closed sales in March compared to the national average of 9.4 months and a balanced real estate market of 6-8 months, we clearly have a ways to go.  Improving national economic and jobs numbers and improving consumer confidence are needed to support the current healing of our Lake Norman housing market. I continue to encourage my buyers to buy if they find a good home at a good price, especially waterfront homes.  While I don’t anticipate prices going up in Lake Norman this year, I also don’t see that many truly exceptional bargains. (Less than 8% of our inventory are distressed properties: foreclosures and shortsales).  Prices in general are low as are interest rates.  In my opinion, 2012 represents a great opportunity for potential Lake Norman home buyers.  Is that a light I see at the end of the tunnel?  Only time will tell!

Learn More About Life in Lake Norman:

Lake Norman Relocation Resources

Relocating to Lake Norman

Lake Norman Participation Sports Resource Guide

Lake Norman, Our Inland Sea

*Compiled from the Charlotte Regional Multiple Listing Service’s data, this chart enables you to focus on your specific price range(s) rather than use the broad-brush approach thus allowing you to size up your competition and better position yourself.

** Compare this to last year’s first quarter sales analysis of Lake Norman homes by price range

How to read this report:

• First choose a price range.
• The next column provides the actual number of listings sold in this price range in the 1st quarter of 2012
• This is followed by the percentage this price range represents of the total number of listings sold in all of Lake Norman area 13
• Next is the number of active listings in this price range
• This is followed by the percentage this price range represents of the total number of active listings
• Finally, the last column represent the absorption rate or the number of months of supply for each price range based upon the number of listings divided by the number of sales.

Some Findings:

• Sales of Lake Norman homes when compared with the amount of inventory remain strongest in the lowest price ranges.  The $0 – $399,999 price range represented 51.6% of Lake Norman home sales and only 39% of the active listings. Properties up to $399,999 currently have an absorption rate of 9.3 months compared to the first quarter of 2011 when they had 12.7 months of supply.
• The second strongest price ranges these past 3 months were the $400,000′s, $600,000′s and $900,000′s, all of which had higher percentages of numbers sold than percentages of active listings.
• Our weakest price ranges in the past 3 months were the $700,000′s, $800,000′s and homes over $1,500,000.
• 12.21% of our home sales were at or above  $800,000 compared to 9.66, 12.92% in the 3rd quarter of 2011 and 14.3% in the 2nd quarter of 2011.  Once again we only had 1 closed sale over $2 million.  Our luxury housing market in Lake Norman definitely slowed down in the fourth quarter and early in the first quarter.  However, sales in the $1 million – $1.5 million definitely picked up in March.
• Our overall Months of Supply increased slightly from the 4th quarter 2011 in large part due to our seasonal slowdown in winter.  To put this year in perspective, in the first quarter of 2011 we had 21.99 months of supply and, in the 4th quarter of 2009, we had a staggering 46.4 months of supply of homes for sale in Lake Norman! All of our Lake Norman real estate numbers are trending in a positive direction and have been for quite some time.  (see my other Lake Norman home sales analysis by clicking on the Market Reports category in the right hand column of this page.

As a buyer, the chart above will show you where you might face the stiffest competition and at what price ranges you might see opportunities.  As a seller, you can look at the Lake Norman real estate market’s activity by price range and if you are right on the cusp of, for example, a $700,000 listing price, it would clearly be prudent to price your home in the high $600,000’s  where there were three times as many properties sold (and more buyers) and comparatively less competition in active listings.

Questions about this report or the overall Lake Norman real estate market?  Send me a quick email: diane@dianeaurit.com.

Just for fun, I also created a sales chart by price range for all of 2011:

Please note that in all of the price range charts I am actually using data from the 15th of the month so these numbers won’t match perfectly with the monthly or annual sales numbers I provide.

OTHER ARTICLES of  INTEREST 

Lake Norman Relocation Resources

Lake Norman  Sports Resource Guide

Lake Norman, Our Inland Sea

Lake Norman Where to Find Fresh Produce Stands and Farmers Markets

What You Need to Know About Buying Real Estate In North Carolina

Fresh Sushi? Hush Puppies? The Scoop About Relocating to Mooresville Lake Norman

How to get the Lastest Lake Norman News, Events and Coupon Savings!

Lake Norman Foreclosures, Short Sales and Green Homes…Search HERE

The best farmer’s market in the Lake Norman area, in my opinion, has got to be the Davidson Farmer’s Market which is celebrating its spring/summer season opening this Saturday from 8:00am to noon.

What makes Davidson Farmer’s Market so special?

• Features more than 35 farmers and local producers withing a 100-mile radius
• Certified organic, naturally grown & conventionally grown fruits and vegetables
• Grass-fed beef, pastured porch & eggs from free-range chickens
• Fresh baked goods
• Prepared foods
• Fresh cut flowers
• Herbs, plants
• And more!

This Saturday’s celebration will include even more vendors, chef demonstrations by Chef Vera, music by Garrie Howard, Growing Kids Club and a great chance to see friends and learn about food, agriculture and nutrition.

It is easy to find as it is now right on Main Street next to the Davidson Town Hall.

The Fresh Market:  Lake Norman Just Keeps Getting Better!

Learn About Lake Norman and North Carolina Barbecue

Lake Norman: Where to find fresh produce stands and Farmers Markets

Without a doubt, April is my favorite month here on Lake Norman. This year’s unseasonably warm weather accentuated the annual burst of life that we enjoy every April.  Blossoms are everywhere as our trees go from sticks to fully leafed out.  Blossoming Cherry Trees (like the one above) are joined by plum, apricot, crabapple, Rosebuds and, of course, our spectacular Dogwoods.  Bright yellow Forsythia bushes and daffodils are quickly followed by the showy pick flowers of Loropedalums, Spireas.  And then, the Azaleas burst with color all over the lake shoreline.  The skis are bright blue, temperatures are mild enough for avid boaters.  Life is good!

 Photo of blossoms at The Point

To make your desktop calendar, go to the round button at the top of this site’s home page entitled: “Lake Norman Calendar”. Click on this button and up will come this image of my Lake Norman photo wallpaper calender for April 2012. All you have to do is right click and select “set as background”. If you would like a copy of this photo without the calendar, just send me an email.

FREE $25 GAS CARD!

I need your HELP!  I would love to use one of your favorite photos depicting life here in Lake Norman.  (Optimum size is a landscape photo about 2MB or about 1600 x 1200 pixels). I will give a $25 Gas Card to anyone who provides a photo that I use as one of my monthly calendars.  If you’d like to submit a photo  or an idea for a future calendar, please send it to…

diane@dianeaurit.com

Articles of Interest

Lake Norman Relocation and Resource Guide

Lake Norman Sports (Participation) Resource Guide

How to get the Lastest Lake Norman News, Events and Coupon Savings!

Relocating to Lake Norman

For the 6th time in 8 years, Mooresville-Statesville was named top Microplitan area by Site Magazine thanks to nearly doubling the number of economic development projects in 2011!  And, Governor Perdue recently announced that our state of North Carolina has risen to 4th place for states based upon the number of new and expanded corporate facilities also by Site Magazine.  Both local and state officials say that these awards are evidence of our business-friendly climate.

More evidence of the health of our future ecomony came from a recent Penkse Truck Rental press release that ranked Charlotte in the top 10 of one-way truck rental destinations in the US.

Now, if this isn’t enough evidence of our strong local ecomonic future, guess what “The Donald” said about the Lake Norman area when interviewed recently about his interest in buying The Point Lake and Golf Club  and asked why he targeted the Lake Norman area?

“North Carolina and the Lake Norman Market in particular are a much safer investment than some of the higher-profile resort locations teeming with speculative and unproven markets” according to a recent Business Today article entitled: Trump says Lake Norman market is big draw….Market ‘stable, well occupied’. 

In fact, while in town for his meeting this week with members of The Point Lake and Golf Club in Mooresville, Trump went on to say to the Charlotte Observer:

“We love this piece of land, the lake, the tremendous lake…The views from the (golf) course are magnificent…I think Charlotte has a great future.  I think the whole area is great.  The people, the energy.  That’s why we’re going to be doing this deal…I think we can bring that course to the next level…It will be a magical place.”

Now who am I to question “The Donald”?  Of course, I already think that Lake Norman is a magical place.

More Articles of Interest 

Growth is Creeping Back to Lake Norman

Redline Commuter Rail: Good or Bad Idea?

Lake Norman’s Brawley School Road is has gone from a nightmare to a dream!

Lake Norman is Growing and Improving Despite the Recession!

New Restaurants and Retail News in Mooresville Lake Norman