The Point  in Mooresville NC is arguably the most prestigious luxury community in all of Lake Norman and it is also the largest with 18 miles of beautiful Lake Norman’s shoreline.  Those of you who are regular readers will know that I like to monitor the sales trends at The Point to glean more insight into our Lake Norman luxury home market.

I have been noticing some notable trends in The Point recently; an increase in sales and a drop in active listings both of which bode very well for The Point and may be an indication of other micro-real estate markets around the lake. 

To put this into context, back on March 10th 2010 I wrote:  The Point, Lake Norman’s Ultimate Luxury Community: A 9-year study which provided a good long-term overview of their sales.  And, looking back to September 18, 2008 I wrote:  The Point in Lake Norman: A Case Study #2.  In this report I noted that we had 123 active listings which translated at the time to a whopping 41-month supply of inventory!  Again, in: Lake Norman Real Estate: Affordable Housing at The Point…Wow! on July 25, 2009 I noted that we had 114 active listings and had sold 19 homes since the beginning of the year for a 38-month supply of active listings.

The number of active listings in The Point has plummeted since then.  Today, with only 71 active listings, that represents a drop of 42% since 2008 and 38% since July of 2009.  These numbers are substantially better than our overall Lake Norman housing inventory which remains quite high. 

But, it gets even more interesting when you look at the recent sales numbers.  Since January 1, 2010 we have closed 19 sales in The Point which is a significant jump from the same period in 2008 and 2009.   ( We sold 7 homes in the same period in 2009, 11 homes in 2008 and 21 in 2007 which some consider to be the peak of our market). 

At an average of 5 sales per month, this means we are down to a 14-month supply of homes in The Point!   Given that 6-8 months of inventory is considered a balanced housing market, The Point is almost there.  This is an astounding improvement in a relatively short period of time. 

What about prices?  The average sale price per square foot has dropped 26% from 2007′s $274 to $203 per square foot.  ( This includes both waterfront and non-waterfront homes). The average sales price for waterfront homes at The Point since January 1, 2010 was $271 compared to 2007′s $318 or a drop of 14.8%.  Our 2010 non-waterfront average sales price was $161 or a drop of 29% from 2007′s average of $228.  This is almost 10% per year.   

Here are some interesting statistics related to homes at The Point: 

Active Listings:

• 71 today, April 27, 2010 
• 82 in November of 2009
• 114 in July of  this year  (months of supply = 38)
• 123 in September of 2008 (months of supply = 41)
• Peak of about 140

Pending Sales:  6

Conditional Sales: 13

Contingent Sales: none

Solds:

• 19  (since 1/1/2010
•  7   (same period in 2009)
• 11  ( same period 2008)
• 21  (same period 2007)
• Year-to-date 2010: 19 closed sales plus 19 conditional and pending = 38!
• All of 2009:       41
• All of 2008:      33
• All of 2007:      76

Price ranges of homes currently on the market:

• $400,000′s: 1
• $500,000′s:   3
• $600,000′s:   6
• $700,000′s: 8
• $800,000′s:  12
• $900,000′s:  4
• $1 million – $1.5: 21
• $1.5 – $2.0 = 7
• $2million + = 9

Conditional Sales:

• $465,000
• $575,000
• $579,000
• $600,000
• $649,900
• $725,000
• $795,000
• $859,900
• $950,000
• $1,150,000
• $1,673,000
• $2,695,000  (Days on the market: 792)
• $3,399,000  (Days on the market: 915)

Pending Sales:

• $644,800
• $799,900
• $940,000
• $994,500
• $1,379,000
• $3,291,791

Solds: 

• 12 of the 19 sales year to date were under $1 million. 

There is no doubt that the foreclosures, shortsales and bargains, especially under $1 million, are dominating the recent sales.  13 of our pending and conditional sales or 68% of the recent sales were listed for under $1 million yet only 42% of the active listings are under $1 million.  Savvy buyers are jumping off of the fence and gobbling up the bargains!  However, the luxury homes that have been sitting for up to three years are now selling a few at a time as well.  Is The Point leading the way for a Lake Norman real estate market recovery?

 The Point  in Mooresville NC is arguably the most prestigious luxury community in all of Lake Norman and it is also the largest with 18 miles of beautiful Lake Norman’s shoreline.  So, when I see interesting changes in housing numbers in The Point I try to put them in context to see if they are in fact an indicator of a significant shift or trend. 

Back on September 18, 2008 I wrote:  The Point in Lake Norman: A Case Study #2.  In this report I noted that we had 123 active listings which translated at the time to a whopping 41-month supply of inventory!  Then, in: Lake Norman Real Estate: Affordable Housing at The Point…Wow! on July 25, 2009 I noted that we had 114 active listings and had sold on 19 homes since the beginning of the year or a 38-month supply of active listings.

Today, the number of active listings in The Point has dropped to 82 or 33% below a year ago September.  In today’s buyers’ market this number alone is good news.  But, it gets even more interesting when you look at the recent sales numbers.  In this past October we had 9 closed sales in The Point which is a significant jump from any month for several years.  This makes for a total of 36 sales year-to-date in 2009 in The Point.  But, as of July 25, 2009 we only had 19 sales so we have almost doubled our sales for the year in The Point in the past 4 months.  At 36 sales we have already surpassed the 2008 sales total for the year of 33.  And, we have 7 pending sales and 5 conditional sales that will most likely close by the end of 2009 for a potential total annual sales of 48 almost half of which will have been in this winter 4th quarter.  If we average 5 sales per month we would have dropped to about a 16-month supply of active listings. While still high, this number is less than half of the 41 months we had in September of 2008. 

What does such a strong fourth quarter mean?  

While it is still clearly a buyer’s market in The Point, I think these numbers are significant enough to indicate a positive trend.  Inventory is dropping and sales are increasing.  While half of the inventory and sales are homes priced under $1million, there are FOUR homes priced well over $1million currently under contract and poised to close.  It would seem that some of our luxury home buyers are jumping off of the fence, enticed by some great price reductions and perhaps a sense that now is a good time to buy.

One example of an incredible bargain is a waterfront lot foreclosure that closed this past week in The Point for $400,000.  This lot sold for about half the market value.  It has very good water and views and is about an acre of a flat to gently sloping lot…just what most home buyers and builders are seeking.  At our peak this lot was probably worth over $1million.

Here are some interesting statistics related to homes at The Point: 

Active Listings:

•  82 today  (months of supply = 9.8 if use the past 30 days or 16.5 if use last 3 months)
• 114 in July of  this year  (months of supply = 38)
• 123 in September of 2008 (months of supply = 41)
• Peak of about 140

Pending Sales:  7

Conditional Sales: 5

Contingent Sales: 2

Solds:

• Since October 1, 2009:      9  (25 % of this year’s sales were in October!) 
• Past 3 month or since 8/11/09:      14
• Same 3-month period in 2008:     7
• Same 3-month period in 2007:     14 
• Year-to-date 2009:      36
• All of 2008:      33
• All of 2007:      76

Price ranges of homes currently on the market:

• $500,000:   5 
• $600,000:   9
• $700,000:  6
• $800,000:  15
• $900,000:  4

Contingent Sales:

• $699,000
• $2,199,000

Conditional Sales:

• $749,000
• $899,000
• $1,495,000
• $2,750,000
• $3,950,000

Pending Sales:

• $578,500
• $695,000
• $749,900
• $779,500
• $1,599,000

Affordable housing at The Point on Lake Norman?  It’s an oxymoron, or is it?  Thanks to its incredible reputation as THE upscale Lake Norman community, many home-buyers just assume that a home in The Point is out of their price range. 

 With their resort-like amenities including  The Point Lake and Golf Club, their Nantucket-inspired community complete with a tennis club, three swimming pools, a general store, tavern, large club house, full-time activities director and even their own cobbler, one tends to picture their magnificent waterfront estates dotting the shoreline of the Brawley Peninsula.

There is no doubt that with 18 miles of Lake Norman’s most beautiful shoreline, The Point has more than its share of multi-million dollar homes. 

 Would it surprise you to know that there is a lovely ranch home on a waterview lot currently for sale for only $495,000? Now that’s affordable housing at The Point! In fact, as of today, there are 114 active listings in The Point.  While their average price is $1,338,142, there are 5 active listings under $600,000 and another 10 active listings under $700,000!  There is a total of 50 homes for sale in The Point under $1 million. 

A community that has a perception of being out of reach for most home buyers may actually be affordable after all!  

 How would you like the current scoop on the affordability of The Point? 

 It turns out that since this past January 1, 2009 only 19 homes have sold in The Point half of which sold for under $1 million.  Since their highs a few years ago, waterfront homes are now selling under $300 per square foot depending on the quality of the water.  With 38 months of supply of homes based upon current sales and inventory, we are seeing many price reductions and even foreclosures and short sales at The Point, something that would have been unheard of a few years ago.

Sure, these prices may not be affordable to all,  However, compared to their peak, this may be the best opportunity to buy in The Point before our Lake Norman housing market comes back to life AND the widening of Brawley School is completed.

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