Lake Norman’s 1st Quarter 2019 Home Sales By Price Range
*Compiled from the Carolina Multiple Listing Service’s data. Note that the numbers in this chart are generated by a technology expert I hired and not by me. The mapped perimeter of our Lake Norman area that he used for this chart’s numbers is slightly different from mine.
Lake Norman’s overall real estate market in the first quarter of this year experienced a solid upswing after a very weak 4th quarter. However, there were some rather dramatic and inexplicable sub-trends within price-range groups both up and down within our market these past 3 months. These will be quite evident as you study the chart above. The best way to understand our hot and cold niches is by analyzing our sales by price-range which is why I create this chart each quarter.
If you are a home buyer or seller in the Lake Norman area it matters most what is happening in YOUR price-range. Yes, it is important to know about the global, national, and Charlotte area economy and real estate market but real estate is hyper-local so it is most meaningful for you to learn about the Lake Norman real estate market and within that, your specific niche. For instance, if you are looking to buy or sell in the $300,000 price range, you are going to have an entirely different experience than someone in the $400,000’s. And, if you considering a broader range of prices, this chart can help you develop a more effective strategy by narrowing your search based upon actual strengths and weaknesses within our Lake Norman price-ranges.
The single most important number in this chart is the last column which provides that month’s of supply for each price range. Keeping in mind that economists define a 6-months supply of active listings a balanced market and anything below that as a seller’s market and above 6 months as a buyer’s market, you can quickly determine this past quarter’s strengths and weaknesses. Overall, at 6.28 months of supply of active listings, Lake Norman began 2019 in pretty much of a balanced market. That said, the price-range swings are substantial and very unusual.
How to read this report:
- First choose a price-range.
- The next column provides the actual number of listings sold in this price-range in the 1st quarter of 2019
- This is followed by the percentage this price-range represents of the total number of listings sold in all of Lake Norman
- Next is the number of active listings in this price-range today
- This is followed by the percentage this price-range represents of the total number of active listings
- Finally, the last column represent the absorption rate or the number of months of supply for each price-range based upon the number of listings divided by the number of sales. (A balanced housing market is 6 months so you can use this to gauge your price range).
Just for fun and to put the chart above in perspective, compare this last year’s 1st Quarter 2018 Price Range Chart:
And, here is the 4th quarter of 2018:
Insight and Findings:
- Our overall months of supply (absorption rate) of 6.28 increased from 5.77 last quarter but was below Lake Norman’s 1st quarter 2018’s 6.67. We have been in a balanced market overall for the past three months. However, some price-ranges are definitely in a buyer’s market. while others are very much in a seller’s market.
- Our current inventory of 770 single family homes is slightly higher than last year’s 1st quarter. (However, according to my MLS search as of today we have only 731!).
- This past quarter there were unusually well defined groups of very strong and very weak sales. Simply stated, homes priced up to $399,999 were in a very strong sellers’ market while homes prices at or above $700,000 were in a buyers’ market
- The strongest price niches in the 1st quarter were the $0 – $99,999, $100,000’s, $200,000’s and $300,000’s. As you go up in each of the $100,000 price increments, the months of supply go up as well. Note: the $300,000’s represented 27% of our entire 1st quarter sales!
- As we travel up the price-ranges (or down the chart) the next clear niche, the $400,000 – $699,999, is in a balanced market. Overall their months of supply goes from 6.18 to 7. Again, each price-range’s months of supply increase with the incremental price.
- The third niche, again following the price ranges as they go up, is the $700,000 – $1,249,999 all of which are in a buyers’ market with months of supply falling between 7.58 to 13.3.
- Finally we have our weakest price-range niche which includes all of our luxury homes over $1,250,000. While this is not unusual, what is remarkable is that there are no price range exceptions and the months of supply range from 19.25 to a whopping 73.5! We haven’t seen numbers like some of these in years! What happened to our luxury housing market last quarter?
- To put this in historical perspective, in the 1st quarter of 2009 we had only 111 sales but 1546 active listings and a whopping 46.4 months of supply for all of Lake Norman!
- If you would like to learn more details about our current market, see my: Lake Norman Real Estate’s March 2019 Market Report. Note my number of active listings was only 731.
As a buyer, the chart above will show you where you might face the stiffest competition and at what price ranges you might see opportunities. For example, if you fall in the $350,000 – $450,000 price range you might want to look for opportunities in the 400,000’s where there were 54 fewer sales but only 39 fewer active listings. You will face less competition and have just about the same number of listings to choose from. Another great example is in the luxury price ranges. The $1,000,000- $1,249,999 had only 7.58 months of supply while the homes priced just $100,000 over these have a 21-month supply of listings and the next incremental price-range above that has a 73.5 month’s of supply! All of our mid to highest priced homes are in a buyers’ market.
As a seller, you can look at the Lake Norman real estate market’s activity by price range and if you are right on the cusp of, for example, a $700,000 listing price, it would be best to price your home in the high $600,000’s (rather than the low $700,000’s) where there are about the same number of homes for sale but twice as many sales/buyers looking to buy.
I am so used to this chart that it is easy for me to understand but if you have ANY questions about this report and your specific price range or the overall Lake Norman real estate market by all means call me or send me a quick email: firstname.lastname@example.org. Please note that in all of the price-range charts I am actually using data from the 15th of the month so these numbers won’t match perfectly with the monthly or annual sales numbers I provide.
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