*Compiled from the Carolina/Canopy Multiple Listing Service’s data. Note that the numbers in this chart are generated by a technology expert I hired and not by me. The mapped perimeter of our Lake Norman area that he used for this chart’s numbers is slightly different from mine.
Our Lake Norman real estate market has been in a seller’s market for about a year and this trend continued into the first quarter of 2020. While the impact of the Covid-19 Virus on our housing market going forward is hard to predict, no matter what type of market we are experiencing by far the best way to truly understand our hot and cold niches is by analyzing our single family home sales by price-range which is why I create this chart each quarter. You can use this chart to find fascinating sub-trends within our Lake Norman housing market which can serve as a great tool in assisting you in your buying or selling strategies.
If you are a home buyer or seller in the Lake Norman area it matters most what is happening in YOUR price-range. Yes, it is important to know about the global, national, and Charlotte area economy and real estate market but real estate is hyper-local so it is most meaningful for you to learn specifically about the Lake Norman real estate market and within that your specific niche. For instance, if you were looking to buy or sell in the $400,000 price range, you would have had an entirely different experience than someone in the $500,000’s. And, if you are considering a broader range of prices now or in the future, this chart can help you develop a more effective strategy by narrowing your search based upon actual strengths and weaknesses within our Lake Norman price-ranges.
The single most important group of numbers in this chart are those in the last column which provide the month’s of supply for each price range. This means how many months that it would take us to run out of listings for based upon today’s number of active listings and at the current rate of sales. Keeping in mind that economists define a 6-months supply of active listings as a balanced market and anything below that a seller’s market and above 6 months a buyer’s market, you can quickly determine this past quarter’s strengths and weaknesses. Overall, Lake Norman as of April 15th had a 4.36 months of supply compared to last quarter’s 3.72 months of supply and last year’s 1st quarter’s 6.28 (which was a balanced market overall). By looking at the last column you can easily ascertain interesting variations within price-ranges.
How to read this report:
- First choose a price-range.
- Moving right, the next column provides the actual number of listings sold in this price-range in the 1st quarter of 2020.
- This is followed by the percentage this price-range represents of the total number of listings sold in all of Lake Norman in the first quarter.
- Next is the number of active listings in this price-range on April 15th of this year.
- This is followed by the percentage this price-range represents of the total number of active listings in all of Lake Norman on April 15th.
- Finally, the last column represent the absorption rate or the number of months of supply for each price-range based upon the number of listings divided by the number of sales. (Remember that a balanced housing market favoring neither buyers or sellers is 6 months so you can use this to gauge your price range).
Just for fun and to put the chart above in perspective, compare this last year’s 1st Quarter 2019 Price Range Chart:
Insight and Findings:
- This past quarter the price range sales numbers up to $899,999 were once again all in a seller’s market but within these price ranges they bumped up and down a bit from a low of 1.44 months of supply to a high of 5.83.
- We saw a marked drop off of all sales above $900,000 especially compared to our 4th quarter’s. All price ranges above $900,000 are very much in a buyer’s market. However, until you get to the top luxury prices over $3 million (they had just one sale and 12 active listings for a months supply of 42) the months of supplies of the price ranges do not vary that much.
- To put this in historical perspective, in the 1st quarter of 2009 we had only 111 sales but 1546 active listings and a whopping 46.4 months of supply for all of Lake Norman!
- Our overall months of supply (absorption rate) of 4.36 is up slightly from last quarter’s 3.72 but well below the 1st quarter of 2019’s 6.28. Until the arrival of the Covid-19 Virus we were very much in a sellers’ market!
- Our inventory of 553 single family homes is well below last year’s 1st quarter’s 770 but our sales were up slightly from 429 to 444. Normally I can expound upon this trend but we are in unknown territory right now so watch our Covid-19 Virus daily updates here.
- If you would like to learn more details about our current market, see our: Lake Norman Real Estate’s March 2020 Market Report.
As a buyer, the chart above will show you where you might face the stiffest competition and at what price ranges you might see opportunities. For example, if you fall in the $450,000 – $550,000 price range you might want to look for opportunities in the 500,000’s where there is a 5.05 months supply of homes compared to only 3.44 in the $400,000. This means there are fewer buyers (43 versus 62) looking at the same number of active listings so less competition. The same is true if you are looking in the mid to high $800,000’s to the low $900,000’s. If you can stretch your budget you will have a strong position looking in the $900,000’s where there are fewer buyers with about the same number of listings to choose from.
As a seller, you can look at the Lake Norman real estate market’s activity by price range you can flip the above price range strategies. If you are on the cusp of $500,000 you should consider listing just under $500,000 where you will have almost 50% more buyers. Or, if you are right on the cusp of $900,000 listing price, it would be best to price your home in high $800,000’s (rather than the low $900,000’s) where there are 25% more buyers and about the same number of active listings.
I am so used to this chart that it is easy for me to understand but if you have ANY questions about this report and your specific price range or the overall Lake Norman real estate market by all means call me or send me a quick email: firstname.lastname@example.org. Please note that in all of the price-range charts I am actually using data from the 15th of the month so these numbers won’t match perfectly with the monthly or annual sales numbers I provide.
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