Lake Norman experienced a dramatic slowdown in our 4th quarter but that doesn’t mean there weren’t “hot” niches. The best way to understand our hot and cold niches is by analyzing our sales by price range which is why I create this chart each quarter.
If you are a home buyer or seller in the Lake Norman area it matters most what is happening in YOUR price-range. Yes, it is important to know about the global, national, and Charlotte area economy and real estate market but real estate is hyper-local so it is most meaningful for you to learn about the Lake Norman real estate market and within that, your specific niche. For instance, if you are looking to buy or sell in the $900,000 price range, you are going to have an entirely different experience than someone in the $800,000’s. And, if you considering a broader range of prices, this chart can help you develop a more effective strategy by narrowing your search based upon actual strengths and weaknesses within our Lake Norman price ranges.
The single most important number in this chart is the last column which provides that month’s of supply for each price range. Keeping in mind that economists use 6-months supply as a balanced market and anything below that as a seller’s market and above 6 months as a buyer’s market, you can quickly determine this past quarter’s strengths and weaknesses. Overall, at 5.77 months of supply of active listings, Lake Norman ended the year in a balanced market.
Lake Norman’s 4th Quarter 2018 Home Sales By Price Range
*Compiled from the Carolina Multiple Listing Service’s data. Note that the numbers in this chart are generated by a technology expert I hired and not by me. The mapped perimeter of our Lake Norman area that he used for this chart’s numbers is slightly different from mine.
How to read this report:
- First choose a price range.
- The next column provides the actual number of listings sold in this price range in the 4th quarter of 2018
- This is followed by the percentage this price range represents of the total number of listings sold in all of Lake Norman
- Next is the number of active listings in this price range today
- This is followed by the percentage this price range represents of the total number of active listings
- Finally, the last column represent the absorption rate or the number of months of supply for each price range based upon the number of listings divided by the number of sales. (A balanced housing market is 6 months so you can use this to gauge your price range).
Just for fun, let’s compare this to the 3rd Quarter 2018 Price Range Chart:
Insight and Findings:
- Our overall months of supply (absorption rate) of 5.77 increased from 4.38 last quarter which affirms that our Lake Norman real estate market has slowed and, despite very low inventory, is currently in a balanced market overall. However, some price ranges are very much in a buyer’s market. while others are in a seller’s market.
- Our current inventory of 755 single family homes is equal to the end of last quarter’s yet our sales dropped from 604 down to 433 which is a 28% drop!
- Instead of being able to group the highest and weakest performing price ranges, this quarter it is more meaningful to highlight specific price ranges.
- Unlike last quarter’s impressive luxury home numbers, this quarter the luxury standout price ranges were the $1000,000-$1,499,999 and $1,750,000 – $1,999,999. These price ranges have just under 6-months of supply so are leaning towards favoring the sellers. All other high-end price ranges fell back into a buyer’s market especially those at and above $2,000,000..
- The strongest sales/price niches in the 4th quarter were the $100,000’s, $200,000’s, $400,000’s, $600,000’s, $800,000’s and the $1000,000-$1,499,999 and $1,750,000 – $1,999,999. Each of these price ranges is in a different segment of our market: The entry level, middle level, trade-up and luxury. Interesting!
- Our weakest price ranges, when we look at their month’s of supply, were the$300,000’s, $500,000’s, $700,000’s, $900,000’s, $1,500,000-$1,749,999 and all price ranges above $2,000,000.
- To put this in historical perspective, in the 1st quarter of 2009 we had only 111 sales but 1546 active listings and a whopping 46.4 months of supply for all of Lake Norman!
- If you would like to see my numbers for Lake Norman’s December sales and number of active listings: Lake Norman Real Estate’s December 2018 Market Report. Note my number of active listings at the end of the year was 653.
As a buyer, the chart above will show you where you might face the stiffest competition and at what price ranges you might see opportunities. For example, if you fall in the $850,000 – $950,000 price range you might want to look for opportunities in the 900,000’s where there were 12 fewer sales but only 4 fewer active listings. You will face less competition and have just about the same number of listings to choose from. Another great example is in the luxury price ranges. The $1,000,000- $1,499,999 were hot so if you are able to move up in price above $1,500,000 you will find more listings, less competition and probably more motivated sellers . The higher the months of supply in a price range the more it favors the buyer.
As a seller, you can look at the Lake Norman real estate market’s activity by price range and if you are right on the cusp of, for example, a $900,000 listing price, it would be best to price your home in the high $800,000’s (rather than the low $900,000’s) where there are about the same number of homes for sale but 60% more sales.
I am so used to this chart that it is easy for me to understand but if you have ANY questions about this report and your specific price range or the overall Lake Norman real estate market by all means call me or send me a quick email: firstname.lastname@example.org. Please note that in all of the price range charts I am actually using data from the 15th of the month so these numbers won’t match perfectly with the monthly or annual sales numbers I provide.
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