*Compiled from the Carolina/Canopy Multiple Listing Service’s data. Note that the numbers in this chart are generated by a technology expert I hired and not by me. The mapped perimeter of our Lake Norman area that he used for this chart’s numbers is slightly different from mine.
Despite a downturn in the last few months, Lake Norman’s overall real estate market in the 4th quarter of 2019 remained very much in a seller’s market. However, there were some fascinating sub-trends within price-ranges in the past 3 months as you can see above. By far the best way to truly understand our hot and cold niches is by analyzing our single family home sales by price-range which is why I create this chart each quarter.
If you are a home buyer or seller in the Lake Norman area it matters most what is happening in YOUR price-range. Yes, it is important to know about the global, national, and Charlotte area economy and real estate market but real estate is hyper-local so it is most meaningful for you to learn about the Lake Norman real estate market and within that, your specific niche. For instance, if you are looking to buy or sell in the $400,000 price range, you are going to have an entirely different experience than someone in the $500,000’s. And, if you are considering a broader range of prices, this chart can help you develop a more effective strategy by narrowing your search based upon actual strengths and weaknesses within our Lake Norman price-ranges.
The single most important numbers in this chart are those in the last column which provide the month’s of supply for each price range. This means how many months that it would take us to run out of listings for sale with today’s number of active listings and at the current rate of sales. Keeping in mind that economists define a 6-months supply of active listings a balanced market and anything below that as a seller’s market and above 6 months as a buyer’s market, you can quickly determine this past quarter’s strengths and weaknesses. Overall, Lake Norman currently has 3.72 months of supply compared to last quarter’s 3.85 and last year’s 4th quarter’s 5.77. Lake Norman began 2019 in pretty much of a balanced market and now we are very much in a seller’s market. That said, there are interesting variations within some price-ranges.
How to read this report:
- First choose a price-range.
- Moving right, the next column provides the actual number of listings sold in this price-range in the 2nd quarter of 2019.
- This is followed by the percentage this price-range represents of the total number of listings sold in all of Lake Norman in the second quarter.
- Next is the number of active listings in this price-range today
- This is followed by the percentage this price-range represents of the total number of active listings
- Finally, the last column represent the absorption rate or the number of months of supply for each price-range based upon the number of listings divided by the number of sales. (A balanced housing market is 6 months so you can use this to gauge your price range).
Just for fun and to put the chart above in perspective, compare this last year’s 4th Quarter 2018 Price Range Chart:
Insight and Findings:
- This past quarter the price range sales numbers up to $1,250,000 were once again all in a seller’s market but bumped up and down a bit from a low of 1.56 months of supply to 4.94 within these price ranges.
- We saw a marked drop off of our luxury market starting at $1,250,000 just as we did last quarter but unlike last year. All price ranges above $1,249,999 are very much in a buyer’s market. Note that the strongest luxury price niche was the $2 millions!
- To put this in historical perspective, in the 1st quarter of 2009 we had only 111 sales but 1546 active listings and a whopping 46.4 months of supply for all of Lake Norman!
- Our overall months of supply (absorption rate) of 3.72 is down slightly from 3.84 last month and is well below the 4th quarter of 2018. We are very much in a sellers’ market!
- Our inventory of 513 single family homes is substantially lower than last year’s 4th quarter’s 755 but our sales were up slightly from 433 to 483 which can be attributed to our very strong October and November sales as our December sales plummeted.
- If you would like to learn more details about our current market, see our: Lake Norman Real Estate’s November 2019 Market Report.
As a buyer, the chart above will show you where you might face the stiffest competition and at what price ranges you might see opportunities. For example, if you fall in the $450,000 – $550,000 price range you might want to look for opportunities in the 500,000’s where there is a 4.94 months supply of homes compared to only 3.35 in the $400,000. This means there are fewer buyers (34 versus 71) so less competition. The clearest examples are in the luxury price ranges. The $1,000,000 – $1,249,999 has 26 active listings and 3.96 months of supply so is in a seller’s market while in the price range just above, $1,250,000 – $1,749,999, there are 31 homes for sale and it is very much in a buyer’s market with a 9.86 months of supply. If you can stretch your price, you will be much better off looking just above $1,250,000 as you will face less competition and most likely more motivated sellers.
As a seller, you can look at the Lake Norman real estate market’s activity by price range and if you are right on the cusp of, for example, a $700,000 listing price, it would be best to price your home in low $700,000’s (rather than the high $600,000’s) where there are more buyers and less competition due to fewer active listings. The same applies to listings at the cusp of $1,999,999 where you should price in the low $2,000,000 where there were more than three times the number of sales than the $1,750,000 – $1,999,999 price range.
I am so used to this chart that it is easy for me to understand but if you have ANY questions about this report and your specific price range or the overall Lake Norman real estate market by all means call me or send me a quick email: firstname.lastname@example.org. Please note that in all of the price-range charts I am actually using data from the 15th of the month so these numbers won’t match perfectly with the monthly or annual sales numbers I provide.
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