Want the very latest insight into our Lake Norman real estate market? So do I which is why, every month, I do a snapshot analysis of the middle two weeks of the month to get a sense of where we are at this very moment…an almost live insight into the heartbeat of the Lake Norman housing market.
We are entering our typical seasonal slowdown after a very respectable spring and early summer. So far this August Lake Norman home sales are equal to last month’s but our most recent numbers indicate our fall slowdown has begun. We currently have 247 single family homes under contract (sellers have accepted an offer but the sale is not complete) in all of Lake Norman compared to last month’s 290.
Lake Norman Real Estate’s Two-Week Hot Sheet
* The above chart is a summary of today’s “Hot Sheet” from the Charlotte Multiple Listing Service for single family homes in all of Lake Norman. These numbers represent a real time snapshot of the past two week’s activity. (August 7th – 21st). As always, I have included the past 6 months so that you can put these numbers in perspective.
I created this additional chart comparing just the August Lake Norman Hot Sheets for the past 5 years to help put our August 2014 home sales numbers in perspective with past Augusts’ not just the past 6 months.
August Hot Sheet Numbers for the Past 6 Years
- New listings: Our number of new homes listed for sale in Lake Norman in the past two weeks dropped back down to February levels. This is a good thing as we still have 1099 active listings and we need to see this number drop significantly as our sales slow down.
- Our number of “Under Contract but Continue to Show” homes, formally called Conditional and Contingent sales in our MLS, were slightly lower than last month’s but significantly stronger than August 2013’s. Clearly our market is still logging in relatively strong sales and looks to be beating last August’s. This number of newly signed home sales contracts suggests that Lake Norman will have a relatively positive number of closed home sales for the next few months.
- Our number of Under Contract No Show/Pending sales, on the other hand, are significantly lower than both last month’s and most previous August’s. (Pending or “Under Contract No More Showings” are contracts that have passed all of their conditions/contingencies/Due Diligence Deadlines and are just waiting to close. These home sales contracts will most likely close by the end of this month or in early September.)
- 78 Closed Sales were recorded in the past two weeks which matches last month’s and is significantly better than all past Augusts’ as well. If we consider our early August high closed sales but our slowing pending sales I predict that we will at least match last August’s closed sales of 132. It is important to understand that in our Lake Norman housing market there is no one month that regularly logs the strongest sales so while May was the highest month in 2013, August was actually the highest in 2012. If we see a consistently strong showing as we are this month through the late summer and fall we might even match or beat 2013 sales by the end of the year.
So, what am I experiencing right now and what to I hear from my fellow Realtors? Pretty much the same as the past several months. It is actually fascinating because with small hot and cold niches one Realtor might tell me it is “hot” based upon their own business while others will tell me it is slow. But, I can unequivocally say that our Lake Norman real estate market performed remarkably well after a disappointing late fall and winter. As a listing and a buyer’s agent I can tell you one thing for sure and that is that buyers are very picky and are likely to start the offer process with fairly low numbers unless they are aware of competition. Now that we have new construction to compete with, resale homes need to be in move-in condition and have few weaknesses. I am still seeing some improvement in the waterfront and higher-end sales after a very slow winter. The dynamics of our current Lake Norman housing market are complex and challenging. There are no concrete trends but rather fluid micro trends.
I continue to encourage my buyers to buy if they find a good home at a good price, especially waterfront homes and lots or homes in the most popular neighborhoods. (Location, location, location). With interest rates rising and few distressed sales, (Less than 3% of our inventory are distressed properties: foreclosures and short sales), Lake Norman home buyers need to strike while the iron is hot when they find a home with potential. Prices in general are still historically low. Economists expect home loan rates to continue to rise in 2014. It is impossible to predict specifics for the future but right now it appears that our Lake Norman real home sales will be very close in 2014 to matching the post recession record high numbers logged in 2013.
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