Given that it is 96 degrees out, I guess this analysis truly is “hot”!
As anticipated, all signs point to a significant slow down in our Lake Norman home sales this month after June’s strong numbers fueled by the Federal housing tax rebates. Unfortunately, the Charlotte Multiple Listing Service, from whom I get the numbers for all of my reports, launched a new computer program last week so I’m afraid we may not be comparing apples to apples today but I have done my best to make the numbers below as accurate as possible. One thing I do know is that our sales so far this month stand at 36, a full 36% drop from June.
Lake Norman Real Estate’s Two-Week Hot Sheet
The above chart is a summary of today’s “Hot Sheet” from the Charlotte Multiple Listing Service for single family homes in all of Lake Norman (area 13). These numbers represent a real time snapshot of the past two week’s activity. (July 7- 21th). As always, I have included the past 5 months so that you can put these numbers in perspective.
Below is the 2009 chart for the same period for your reference.
July 13, 2009 Hot Sheet
- New listings: The number of new listings coming on the market in Lake Norman is creeping back up. At the end of May we had 1365 active listings, at the end of June we had 1396 and as of today we have 1412. As you probably know if you follow my reports, we need to get our inventory down to about 8 months of supply in order to be considered a balanced market. This will ultimately be achieved by a combination of a significant increase in sales coupled with a decrease in the number of active listings.
- The number of properties that came back-on-the-market, most likely due to cancelled contracts are no longer available with our new Tempo 5 system. I am hoping they will bring them back but for now I have nothing to work with which is very disappointing!
- The number of price changes dropped almost 20%. At the same time, 80 active listings either expired or were withdrawn from the market.
- Pending home sales appear to have dropped nearly 50%. However, this number simply doesn’t seem right. Today we have a total of 81 pending homes sales so while I do believe activity has dropped in the past two weeks, 27 seems too low. However, I checked and re-checked this number and it is what our new program is stating.
- The number of closed sales in the past two weeks not only dropped 36% compared to last month, but they are even 18% below July 2009. So far this month 36 sales have been reported to our MLS compared to 63 sales at the same time last month. Even if we consider some delayed reportings due to our new computer program change it still looks like our home sales will not break into the 90’s this month so will fall short of 2009 sales for the first time this year.
- Contingent and Conditional sales also dropped about 20%. These represent the most recently accepted offers. It seems clear that our Lake Norman home sales reached their peak in June and will most likely soften through the rest of summer and into fall.
As I said, I am not 100% confident about these numbers due to the relative confusion during the conversion to our new MLS program. Hopefully by the end of the month any late data will be input. That said, there is no doubt that our market, like the rest of the country, experienced a significant bump due to the tax rebates.
I can tell you that I have been exceptionally busy. Buyers are definitely out looking. Interest rates are incredibly low. The million dollar question is what is holding more of them back from actually purchasing a home?