If you are new to this blog, every month I do a snapshot analysis of the middle two weeks of the month to get a sense of where our Lake Norman real estate market is at this very moment…an almost live insight into the heartbeat of the Lake Norman housing market. These Hot Sheet reports serve as pretty good predictors of our short-term future housing sales.
Last month the fact that our Hot Sheet included some pretty mediocre numbers was an indication that our closed sales in June and July were going to remain sluggish after a slight uptick in March and April and rather dramatic decline in May. The report below substantiates that our Lake Norman real estate market seems to have stabilized a bit but at a rather sub-par level.
Lake Norman Real Estate’s Two-Week Hot Sheet
* The above chart is a summary of today’s “Hot Sheet” from the Charlotte Multiple Listing Service for single family homes in all of Lake Norman (area 13). These numbers represent a real time snapshot of the past two week’s activity. (June 7 – 21st). As always, I have included the past 6 months so that you can put these numbers in perspective.
Below is our June 2010 Hot Sheet for you to refer to for comparison:
Lake Norman Real Estate Hot Sheet
June 21, 2010
- New listings: The number of new listings coming on the market remains at about the same pace as the past few months. If you add our new listings to the 20 back-on-market we have a total of 128 properties that were added to our inventory in the past two weeks. At the same time only 39 sales closed for a net increase of 89 homes on the market. This is not a good trend! At this point our overall number of active listings/homes for sale in Lake Norman remains lower than last year’s. However, our inventory has been creeping back up to about 20 months which is well above the ideal balanced housing market of 6-8 months. In other words, the number of our Lake Norman homes for sale is still too high for our current rate of sales and is headed in the wrong direction. However, compared to June 2010 our listings have declined which is a good thing.
- The number of properties that came back-on-the-market, most likely due to cancelled contracts, rose back up to our average trends in 2011. The good news is that they are about half of June 2010’s.
- The number of price changes declined slightly when compared to the past 6 months. Last June we logged 206 price changes in this same two-week period which was almost double this June’s.
- Pending home sales are the highest so far in 2010. This indicates our closed sales for the next 30 days should be slightly higher than the past months’. Pending home sales are contracts that have passed all of their conditions/contingencies/Due Diligence Deadlines and just sitting ready to close. Last June in the same two-week period we recorded a whopping 51 pending sales or 43 % higher than this month. My bet is that we will definitely not see June 2010’s closings of 109 or July’s 81 respectively.
- The number of closed sales of 39 in the past two weeks is significantly better than last month. So far this month 44 closed sales have been reported to our MLS compared to 30 last month, 50 in April, 34 in March, 20 in February, 18 in January, 60 in December. My best guess is that we will be lucky to close 80 real estate contracts in June and we may see an even lower number. It is important to remember that last year at this time the national housing rebate program was still going on which boosted our Lake Norman sales through June 2010. In fact, last June we had 56 sales on our Hot Sheet or 30% greater than this month.
- Our Contingent, Conditional sales and our new category of Actives/Due Diligence finally showed some improvement after sliding backwards since February. These represent the most recently accepted offers and reflect future sales in July/August. This is the one sales number that is actually BETTER than June 2010!
Most economists are predicting a rocky housing market through the rest of 2011 and I expect to seem the same erratic nature of our Lake Norman real estate market to continue into 2012. This uncertainty leads to a lack of confidence in many home buyers. However, I am encouraging my buyers to buy if they find a good home at a good price. While I don’t see prices going up in Lake Norman this year, I also don’t see that many truly exceptional bargains. Prices in general are low as are interest rates. In my opinion, now through the end of 2010 may represent a great opportunity for Lake Norman home buyers. Once 2012 hits it sounds like most economists expect a slow but steady improvement of the housing market. If we see a turn around in consumer confidence then we are playing a new ball game.
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