Want the very latest insight into our Lake Norman real estate market? So do I which is why, every month, I do a snapshot analysis of the middle two weeks of the month to get a sense of where we are at this very moment…an almost live insight into the heartbeat of the Lake Norman housing market.
I always get excited to do this Hot Sheet analysis each month because it provides me with a mid-month pulse of our Lake Norman real estate market. So where are we today? From these numbers it appears that we may have strong closings this month but there are signs of a slowdown on the horizon. Let’s take a closer look:
Lake Norman Real Estate’s June 2016 Two-Week Hot Sheet
* The above chart is a summary of today’s “Hot Sheet” from the Charlotte Multiple Listing Service for single family homes in all of Lake Norman. These numbers represent a real time snapshot of the past two week’s activity. (June 7th – 21st. As always, I have included the past 6 months so that you can put these numbers in perspective. Below is the June chart using my data since 2009.
June Hot Sheet Numbers for the Past 8 Years
Finally, it looks like our closed sales are going to shine this month after last month’s disappointment. At the same time, Lake Norman’s inventory of active listings is growing while our new contracts have begun to slow down. We currently have 322 single family homes under contract (sellers have accepted an offer but the sale is not complete) in all of Lake Norman compared to last month’s 351, and last year’s end of June’s 287.
- New listings: At 122, we have added the largest number of new listings to our inventory in the past year and the highest number in June since the recession numbers of 2010 and 2009. Our shortage of inventory seems to be melting away giving me pause to wonder if our Lake Norman real estate market is heading for a slight correction. As of today we have 1032 active listings in all of Lake Norman which is up from last month’s and last June’s 980.
- Our number of brand NEW “Under Contract but Continue to Show” homes, formally called Conditional and Contingent sales in our MLS, at 74, is lower that last month’s but still exceeds all prior June’s since 2009. This should bode well for our July/August closed sales.
- Our number of Under Contract No Show/Pending sales, at 33, is a significant drop from last month’s and is the lowest June Hot Sheet number since 2012. Pending or “Under Contract No More Showings” are contracts that have passed all of their conditions/contingencies/Due Diligence Deadlines and are just waiting to close. These home sales contracts will most likely close by the end of this month or in July.
- Woo Hoo! 102 Hot Sheet Closed Sales is by far the highest month in the past year and the highest June since 2009 by a wide margin. As of today we have 117 closed sales so far this month. However, we had a huge June last year with 196 closings so we have a ways to go to reach that number in the next 9 days. I am hopeful but not confident given our trends so far this year. Keep in mind, as always, that we have had a surge of new construction this year so these MLS numbers are lower than our actual total sales because so many new homes are sold directly to buyers rather than through the MLS.
Today I am still seeing quite a variety of trends depending on location, types of properties and price ranges. Multiple offers are not uncommon in the $200,000’s and our lower price ranges are selling faster than the higher price ranges. In our trade-up price ranges, exceptional properties are selling quickly but otherwise this price niche is unpredictable. Now that inventory is increasing there are more options to choose from but I am still counseling my buyers to watch the market daily for new listings and price reductions. The average days on market has dropped significantly, especially for “good” new listings. But properties that aren’t perfect are still sitting. If buyers are willing to do remodeling, then now is a great opportunity to buy an older waterfront home that needs work, has been on the market for a long time but is in a great location or has great water. The waterfront teardowns/fixers are still coming on the market but at higher prices than in the past years since the recession. To get a nice waterfront home you really need to be looking at least in the $700,000’s depending on the location. If you drive around almost every area on Lake Norman you will see an amazing amount of new construction. I sold a waterfront home in Sherrill’s Ford recently and as I drive more and more on the west side of Lake Norman I am amazed at the number of large developments breaking ground in both Sherrill’s Ford and Denver. And, interest rates remain under 4% and are now expected to stay in the 3%’s for the rest of the year. Don’t forget that we have very few distressed sales, (Less than 2% of our inventory are distressed properties: foreclosures and short sales), so a bargain may actually be a really well priced home that is in a good location with a good floor plan. My Mantra for 2016 remains: Think location, good floorplans and resale and look for good waterfront opportunities before they are gone. And, if you find a property that suits you, don’t wait too long to act!
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