Want the very latest insight into our Lake Norman real estate market? So do I which is why, every month, I do a snapshot analysis of the middle two weeks of the month to get a sense of where we are at this very moment…an almost live insight into the heartbeat of the Lake Norman housing market.
Historically, October is not a dynamic month for our Lake Norman housing market. Since 2005 only 2 October total closed home sales totals exceeded September’s but unfortunately one was last October which happened to be the second highest sales month in all of 2014. My last few market reports revealed a slowing in our sales and overall activity and I even predicted that we were not going to match last October’s strong home sales in our Lake Norman area. As of today we have 57 total closed sales since the first of October compared to last month’s 72, August’s 83 and 95 closed sales at the same time in July. As you can see below, we had the second highest 2-week hot sheet closed sales totals of all previous Octobers but significantly lower than the past two months 4 months of 2015. We currently have 216 single family homes under contract (sellers have accepted an offer but the sale is not complete) in all of Lake Norman compared to last month’s 247 and August’s 285. There is no doubt Lake Norman’s housing market has slowed down but not unusually so for this time of year. Let’s take a closer look:
Lake Norman Real Estate’s October 2015 Two-Week Hot Sheet
* The above chart is a summary of today’s “Hot Sheet” from the Charlotte Multiple Listing Service for single family homes in all of Lake Norman. These numbers represent a real time snapshot of the past two week’s activity. (October 7th – 21st). As always, I have included the past 6 months so that you can put these numbers in perspective.
I created this additional chart comparing just the October Lake Norman Hot Sheet numbers for the past 6 years to help put our October 2015 home sales activity in perspective with prior Octobers’.
October Hot Sheet Numbers for the Past 7 Years
- New listings: Lake Norman’s number of active listings has been down during all of 2015 peaking during the summer. In the past two weeks we actually saw a slight increase in activity compared to last month and last year which is a good thing! This morning we had 885 active listings in all of Lake Norman which is down from last month’s 918 and well below last September’s 1038!
- Our number of “Under Contract but Continue to Show” homes, formally called Conditional and Contingent sales in our MLS at 52 indicate that perhaps our sales are leveling off after dropping for several months. This number is actually the highest September since 2009. Since these are NEW contracts this might indicate a slight upswing in activity.
- Our number of Under Contract No Show/Pending sales, were the second lowest in the past 7 months and at 26 they exceed only two prior October’s. Pending or “Under Contract No More Showings” are contracts that have passed all of their conditions/contingencies/Due Diligence Deadlines and are just waiting to close. These home sales contracts will most likely close by the end of this month or in November. Last October we closed 166 home sales in Lake Norman and I am not confident that we will be able to beat that number.
- 54 Closed Sales is not bad compared to most Octobers but it is the lowest hot sheet number in the past 7 months and well below last October’s 75. So far this month we have 57 closed sales compared to last months 72 at the same time. Keep in mind that we have had a surge of new construction this year so these MLS numbers are lower than our actual total sales because so many new homes are sold directly to buyers rather than through the MLS.
2015, which started out with a bang and, for the first time and logged consistently high sales each month through August, has experiences a slowdown in the past several months. We has a good 4th quarter in 2014 so it will be interesting to see how we will fare in the upcoming months. But not matter what I am confident that we will exceed 2014’s home sales in 2015. With relatively low inventory I am counseling my buyers to watch the market daily for new listings and price reductions. The average days on market has dropped significantly, especially for “good” new listings. But properties that aren’t perfect are still sitting. If buyers are willing to do remodeling, then now is a great opportunity to buy an older waterfront home that needs work, has been on the market for a long time but is in a great location or has great water. The waterfront teardowns/fixers are still HOT and disappearing! Interest rates actually dropped under 4% recently and with the Feds deciding not to raise rates it looks like mortgage interest rates will remain lower for now than earlier predictions. Also keep in mind that we have very few distressed sales, (Less than 2% of our inventory are distressed properties: foreclosures and short sales), so a bargain may actually be a really well priced home that is in a good location with a good floor plan. My Mantra for 2015: Think location and resale and look for good waterfront opportunities before they are gone!
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