Want the very latest insight into our Lake Norman real estate market? So do I which is why, every month, I do a snapshot analysis of the middle two weeks of the month to get a sense of where we are at this very moment…an almost live insight into the heartbeat of the Lake Norman housing market.
I always get excited to do this Hot Sheet analysis each month because it provides me with the mid-month pulse of our Lake Norman real estate market. So where are we today? The numbers below seem to indicate that while the pace is slowing which is expected at this time of year, we are still looking very strong compared to all prior Septembers. Let’s take a closer look:
Lake Norman Real Estate’s October 2016 Two-Week Hot Sheet
* The above chart is a summary of today’s “Hot Sheet” from the Charlotte Multiple Listing Service for single family homes in all of Lake Norman. These numbers represent a real time snapshot of the past two week’s activity. (October 7th – 21st. As always, I have included the past 6 months so that you can put these numbers in perspective. Below is the September chart using my data since 2009.
September Hot Sheet Numbers for the Past 8 Years
After June’s, August’s and September’s record breaking closed sales but July’s dip, I wasn’t sure what to expect in October but the initial numbers looked positive. So far it looks like October may also exceed 2015’s sales numbers. But, you never know how many closings we will have in the next 10 days. We currently have 272 single family homes under contract (sellers have accepted an offer but the sale is not complete) in all of Lake Norman compared to last month’s 294, and last year’s end of October’s 222. This bodes well for the short term. Yes, we are having our usual seasonal slowdown but we continue to post stronger numbers than 2015 and should end 2016 with higher annual sales than 2015.
- New listings: At 79, our number of new listings added in the past two weeks dropped compared to last month’s but is in line with most prior Octobers. Our inventory of homes for sale in our Lake Norman area has continued to drop in the past few months to levels now slightly below last year’s very low numbers. As of today we have only 885 active listings in all of Lake Norman down from last month’s 944 and June’s high of 1132.
- Our number of brand NEW “Under Contract but Continue to Show” homes, formally called Conditional and Contingent sales, in our MLS, at 69, is actually the lowest compared to the past 6 months yet at the same time it is by far the highest October since 2009! It looks like Lake Norman should post some decent sales numbers through the end of the year.
- Our number of Under Contract No Show/Pending sales, at 27 is the weak link of this month’s hot sheet. It is the second lowest number since April and the 4th highest October since 2009. Pending or “Under Contract No More Showings” are contracts that have passed all of their conditions/contingencies/Due Diligence Deadlines and are just waiting to close. These home sales contracts will most likely close by the end of this month or in November.
- 73 Hot Sheet Closed Sales, on the other hand, reflects the seasonal slowdown when compared to prior months in 2016 but is significantly higher than last October’s and second only to October 2014. To put this in context, last October we sold a total of 112 single family homes but in 2014 we had a record breaking October of 167 closed sales so it makes sense that we are slightly lower than 2014 numbers. 73 is the second highest closed sales number since 2009. I really have to believe we will have a good number to closed sales for October and even through December. So far this month we have closed 76 sales. Keep in mind, as always, that we have had a surge of new construction this year so these MLS numbers are lower than our actual total sales because so many new homes are sold directly to buyers rather than through the MLS.
Clearly, over all, Lake Norman’s real estate market remains very active even when accounting for our traditional seasonal slowdown. That said, I am still seeing quite a variety of trends depending on location, types of properties and price ranges. Multiple offers are not uncommon in the $200,000’s and our lower price ranges are selling faster than the higher price ranges. In our trade-up price ranges exceptional properties are selling quickly but otherwise this price niche is unpredictable. Inventory have dropped significantly so competition is going to be strong for good new listings. I am still counseling my buyers to watch the market daily for new listings and price reductions. The average days on market has dropped, especially for “good” new listings. But properties that aren’t perfect or are overpriced are still sitting. If buyers are willing to do remodeling, then now is a great opportunity to buy an older waterfront home that needs work, has been on the market for a long time but is in a great location or has great water. The waterfront tear-downs/fixers are still coming on the market but at higher prices than in the past years since the recession. To get a nice waterfront home you really need to be looking at least in the $700,000’s depending on the location.
As I wrote the last several months, if you drive around almost every area of Lake Norman you will see an amazing amount of new construction. As I drive more and more on the west side of Lake Norman I am amazed at the number of large developments breaking ground in both Sherrill’s Ford and Denver including a new “Publix coming soon” sign at the corner of Campground and Hwy 150. And, interest rates remain amazingly low and are now expected to stay in the 3%’s for the rest of the year. (Although the Feds may raise their rates in December)/ Don’t forget that we have very few distressed sales, (Less than 2% of our inventory are distressed properties: foreclosures and short sales), so a bargain may actually be a really well priced home that is in a good location with a good floor plan. My Mantra for 2016 remains: Think location, good floorplans and resale and look for good waterfront opportunities before they are gone. And, if you find a property that suits you, don’t wait too long to act!
Learn More About Life in Lake Norman:
To receive all of my updates about Lake Norman Real Estate,