Want the very latest insight into our Lake Norman real estate market? So do I which is why, every month, I do a snapshot analysis of the middle two weeks of the month to get a sense of where we are at this very moment…an almost live insight into the heartbeat of the Lake Norman housing market.
Historically our Lake Norman’s September home sales are always a bit lower than our peak Spring and Summer months and it looks like this month will be no exception. Since 2005 only 2 September closed home sales totals exceeded August’s and they were during the recession years of 2008 and 2009. September has never had the highest annual sales in Lake Norman so clearly a slowdown is expected. As of today we have 72 total closed sales since the first of September compared to last month’s 83 and 95 closed sales at the same time in July. As you can see below, we had the highest 2-week hot sheet closed sales totals of all previous Septembers but slightly lower than the past two months.. We currently have 247 single family homes under contract (sellers have accepted an offer but the sale is not complete) in all of Lake Norman compared to last month’s 285 and last September’s Hot Sheet number of 282. Let’s take a closer look:
Lake Norman Real Estate’s September 2015 Two-Week Hot Sheet
* The above chart is a summary of today’s “Hot Sheet” from the Charlotte Multiple Listing Service for single family homes in all of Lake Norman. These numbers represent a real time snapshot of the past two week’s activity. (September 7th – 2st). As always, I have included the past 6 months so that you can put these numbers in perspective.
I created this additional chart comparing just the September Lake Norman Hot Sheet numbers for the past 6 years to help put our September 2015 home sales activity in perspective with prior Septembers’.
September Hot Sheet Numbers for the Past 7 Years
- New listings: After a gradual increase since the beginning of the year, Lake Norman’s inventory of homes for sale is now declining which is reflected in both of the charts above. At only 69 new listings in the past two weeks we are at the lowest all year! This morning we had 918 active listings in all of Lake Norman which is down from last month’s 938 and well below last September’s 1038!
- Our number of “Under Contract but Continue to Show” homes, formally called Conditional and Contingent sales in our MLS at 49 is the lowest of the year and back to 2013 numbers. This certainly gives us reason to pause!
- Our number of Under Contract No Show/Pending sales, were the second lowest in the past 6 months but at 30 this is the third best September Hot Sheet since 2009. Pending or “Under Contract No More Showings” are contracts that have passed all of their conditions/contingencies/Due Diligence Deadlines and are just waiting to close. These home sales contracts will most likely close by the end of this month or in October. Last September we closed 140 home sales in Lake Norman and I am not confident that we will be able to beat that number.
- 72 Closed Sales, is actually pretty good relative to some prior months and years. While this is the highest September since 2009 with the relatively weak pendings it is hard to predict how we will end this month. So far this month we have 72 closed sales compared to last months 83 at the same time. Keep in mind that we have had a surge of new construction this year so these MLS numbers are lower than our actual total sales because so many new homes are sold directly to buyers rather than through the MLS.
2015, which started out with a bang and, for the first time, logged consistently high sales each month through Augsut now looks to be slowing down. We has a good 4th quarter in 2014 so it will be interesting to see how we will fare in the upcoming months. But not matter what I am confident that we will exceed 2014’s home sales in 2015. With relatively low inventory I am counseling my buyers to watch the market daily for new listings. The average days on market has dropped significantly, especially for “good” new listings. If buyers are willing to do remodeling, then now is a great opportunity to buy an older waterfront home that needs work, has been on the market for a long time but is in a great location or has great water. The waterfront teardowns/fixers are still HOT and disappearing! Interest rates actually dropped under 4% recently and with the Feds deciding not to raise rates it looks like mortgage interest rates will remain lower than earlier predictions. Also keep in mind that we have very few distressed sales, (Less than 2% of our inventory are distressed properties: foreclosures and short sales), so a bargain may actually be a really well priced home that is in a good location with a good floor plan. My Mantra for 2015: Think location and resale and look for good waterfront opportunities before they are gone!
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