After a rather erratic 2011, our Lake Norman real estate market definitely has a lot to celebrate about 2012. Not only was the volume of sales up 23% but our average price and average price per square foot both inched up for the first time since 2007. But, my favorite word for 2012 is consistency. Not only were sales strong, but they were strong every month in 2012 without one hiccup.
What about 2013? My greatest concern is our lack of inventory of homes for sale. My second highest concern is that sellers AND Realtors will over estimate our recovery and have unrealistic expectations for 2013. I am already experiencing sellers who are inflexible about their listing price due to their optimism. No matter how much our Lake Norman real estate market has improved, overpriced listings could play a significant role in limiting our sales as will our lack of inventory. While I don’t expect prices to go down, I also don’t expect them to go up more than about 5% at best.
Below are three charts that pretty much tell the story about our Lake Norman housing market:
Lake Norman Monthly Sales Chart for 8 Years
*Please note that all of my numbers are for single family homes. They come from the Charlotte Region Multiple Listing Service and will not include sales that took place outside of our MLS.
Price trends since 1998:
As you can see, our volume of Lake Norman home sales peaked in 2005 while our average sales price and price per square foot peaked in 2007. But, since our significant drop in 2009, our average sales prices for all homes in Lake Norman have remained fairly stable while our number of home sales has increased dramatically.
This past year’s average price per square foot of $141 was the best since 2008 and the first increase since 2008 as well. (+3.7%).
Another positive trend is the average days a home was on the market in Lake Norman (DOM which is the last column on the right). This number has consistently increased since 2006 until 2012 when we saw a 16.8% decrease in the days a home is on the market before selling.
Here is a new chart I made comparing our Lake Norman sales by area for the past two years:
As a reminder:
- Area 13-1 is the north east side of Lake Norman north of Hwy 150 including the northern section of Mooresville, Troutman and Statesville
- Area 13-2 is all of Mooresville south of Hwy 150 to the Mecklenburg county line
- Area 13-3 is all of Mecklenburg County’s Lake Norman adjacent homes found in Davidson, Cornelius and a few in Huntersville
- Area 13-4 is the south west section of Lake Norman which is primarily Denver and Lincoln County
- Area 13-5 is the north west section of Lake Norman including Sherrills Ford and Terrell in Catawba County
Home sales volume and prices varied quite a bit by the area! Clearly the more southern communities on both sides of the lake fared better than the areas north of Hwy 150.
We started 2013 with record low inventories of homes for sale all over Lake Norman and lot of activity considering it was January. It will be interesting to watch our levels of inventory to see if more sellers start to jump in now that sales have picked up. Buyers are out there but they remain cautious and are using past sales to determine their offers so overpriced listings are likely to get lower offers or sit until they are priced properly. However, if there are mulitple offers prices will most likely go up. All and all, I think 2013 with be a stable year for Lake Norman home sales with potential gains but unlikely losses.
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