Since Donald Trump purchased The Point Golf Club situated in the renowned luxury community The Point on Lake Norman last spring, there has been avid speculation about how he will impact the entire community’s ambiance and the values of the more than 800 luxury and waterfront homes. Today, as you drive through The Point and you will see workers just about everywhere; from the golf course itself where all 18 holes are being lengthened and upgraded to landscaping crews to painters to workers remodeling “The Tavern” and dining room. It turns out Mr. Trump doesn’t like grey so the quaint gray shingled Nantucket-style builds at “The Village” including the building pictured above at the traffic circle, are now a very bright white!
Many folks feel that Trump has already had an impact on the home values in The Point so I decided it was time to take a detailed look to see if I can actually see a Trump Factor in the numbers in 2012. It will be very interesting to do the exact same thing next year when I think we will really be able to see whether he has had an impact.
Here are two charts showing home sales in The Point by year since it opened in 2001. The first one is waterfront homes and the second one is off water homes.
Waterfront Home Sales in The Point
Off-Water Home Sales in The Point
* Numbers are from the Charlotte Multiple Listing Service
It is clear that the number of home sales in The Point peaked in about 2006-2007 and then experienced a significant decline. It is important to note that there are currently only 37 active listings in The Point compared to a high of about 140 at the peak so the fact that sales volume is down this year is more a result of a lack of inventory rather than less demand. Today we have about 9.25 months of supply of active listings compared to over 40-months supply of inventory in 2008 and 15.4% in 2011. ( See my analysis written on 9/12/08. ) But there are some differences between the waterfront and off-water home sales:
- The average price per square foot peaked at $322 in 2008, then dropped down dramatically to $237 in 2011. In 2012 they improved slightly to $245. It is important to note that there are 5 waterfront properties in The Point currently under contract of which two are over $2 million.
- The average days on the market has dropped back down to 99 after peaking at 186 in 2011.
- The number of sales of off water homes in 2012 is also low due to the very low inventory of active listings. Gone are all of the “spec” homes that were available before the recession many of which became distressed sales/foreclosures as the builders went under. The average sales price of off water homes in The Point peaked in 2008 , bottomed out in 201o and have been improving slowly but steadily in 2011 and 2012.
This chart is fascinating as it defines the specific price trends in The Point:
- While there were 4 sales in the $400,000’s this past year there are NO homes for sale today under $529,000.
- There are some very clearly defined price ranges that are very strong and very weak:
- The very strongest price range by far is the $1 million to $1,499,999. Together they represent 40% of the sales in 2012 and only 8.1% of the active listings today! This price range is HOT.
- To a lesser degree, the $500,000’s, $700,000’s and $900,000’s stand out as stronger price ranges.
- By contrast, the weakest price ranges were the $600,000’s, $800,000’s and over $1.5 million.
- There are 9 properties in The Point currently under contract. The prices: 1 @ $624,993, 2 in the $700,000’s, 1 @ $999,000, 1@ $1,117,523, 1@ $1,309,999, 1@ $1,474,553, and 2 @ $2,100,000.
What about lots?
After several years without any new construction, it is exciting to drive through The Point and its surrounding neighborhoods and see so many homes under construction. To substantiate this emerging trend I looked at the activity of lots in The Point and discovered that 26 lots sold in 2012 and 2 more are under contract. Only 8 lots sold in The Point in all of 2011 so that represents a 325% increase in sales in one year! There are currently 25 lots in The Point listed for sale in our MLS.
There is no doubt from the numbers above that prices have turned a corner in The Point. Waterfront price per square foot increased in 2012 3.4% and off water home prices were up 3.75%. At the same time, the number of active listings is down to only 37. There are actually three factors that contributed to this improvement:
- The greater Lake Norman housing market has been improving
- The widening of Brawley School Road which was completed in August of 2011
- Donald Trump’s purchase of The Point Golf Club
I believe that we will see a growing impact of Trump’s ownership as his $10 million of improvements are completed by the end of 2013. The very fact that the Trump invested in The Point because he thinks ” it is a spectacularly beautiful area and has a distinctive quality that is peaceful. It as a quiet grandeur and that is very appealing.” has already boosted the reputation of not just The Point but the adjacent Brawley Peninsula neighborhoods. His reputation for exceptional quality will perhaps allow The Point to cast an even wider net of appeal not only around the country but around the world.
Now, for us locals, we just have to get used to calling it Trump National and learn to love the new white paint and gold embossed black leather!