Lake Norman Real Estate Market Reports

Lake Norman Real Estate’s October 2019 Market Report

Lake Norman Real Estate's October 2019 Market Report

All data is from the Canopy/Carolina Multiple Listing Service.

As our numbers from last month predicted, Lake Norman home sales in October were very strong: a 23% increase over last year’s and a 14% increase over last month’s. This month’s sales also exceeded all prior October home sales since 2005 by a significant amount! (See green chart below). Yes, we are up against some weak 2018 numbers but the fact that we also beat our 2017 record-breaking October is truly impressive especially when you consider how low our inventory of active listings is today. And, this trend looks to be continuing throughout the rest of this year. Let’s look at my comprehensive report below which will provide deeper insight into where we are headed as well as details regarding this month’s sales.

Here are what I feel to be the biggest takeaways from October’s Lake Norman real estate sales data:

  • Our current month’s of supply (absorption rate) is only 3.15 which is a record low.  We are still very much in a seller’s market.  (A balanced market is 6 months of inventory).
  • Lake Norman’s home sales for the first 10 months of 2019 are now 4.4% higher than 2018’s and 3% above 2017 which was Lake Norman’s highest year of sales ever!
  • The average sales price was up 7% compared to last year’s.  To learn more, scroll down to the sales by price range below.
  • Our inventory of active listings is significantly lower than last year’s. (-22% or a whopping 169 fewer than last year’s!). Normally our inventories  start to decline after their summer peaks but there is no doubt that this year’s numbers are exceptionally low, period!
  • Our newest contracts (UCS) are up 19% while our pending sales (UCNS) are up an impressive 31%. It looks like our Lake Norman home sales will be strong through the end of the year after the 3-month slowdown during the summer.  This is remarkable given our record low inventory!
  • October’s waterfront home sales put this niche in a sellers market with just 4.43 months of supply but it remains weaker than our overall Lake Norman real estate market.
  • New construction sales represented 22% of our overall market in October and today they represent 28.4% of our new contracts.

Let’s take a closer look:

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Lake Norman Real Estate Market Reports

Lake Norman Real Estate’s September 2019 Market Report

Lake Norman real estate market report

All data is from the Carolina Multiple Listing Service.

At first glance our Lake Norman home sales for September look remarkable: a 20% increase over last year’s. But I encourage you to never take any real estate numbers out of context as they are pretty meaningless by themselves. What you need to know about this past September’s 20% increase is that we were up against an unusually low number of sales in September 2018. So, the whole picture includes the fact that our 170 sales still puts us below September of 2017, 2016 and 2005. We also dropped 19% from last month’s sales. Okay, our sales weren’t exactly stellar after all.  But, there is actually a lot of good in my comprehensive report below which bodes well for our last quarter and will provide deeper insight into where we are headed as well as details regarding this month’s sales.

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Lake Norman Real Estate Market Reports

Lake Norman Real Estate’s July 2019 Market Report

Lake Norman real estate market report spreadsheet

All data is from the Carolina Multiple Listing Service.

So, despite pretty strong under contract and pending sales on last month’s market report, our Lake Norman home sales in July were not only 7% below July 2018’s but they were also 16.9% below last month’s. July was the second month in a row that our Lake Norman home sales were below last year’s. After a great start to 2019 we are definitely experiencing a softening of our housing market. Despite these drops, we are still 2.8% higher for the first 7 months of 2019 compared to 2018.  My numbers below should provide some deeper insight into where we are headed as well as details regarding this month’s sales.

Here are what I feel to be the biggest takeaways from July’s Lake Norman real estate sales data:

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Lake Norman Real Estate Market Reports

Lake Norman’s 2nd Quarter 2019 Home Sales by Price Range

Lake Norman real estate's 2nd quarter 2019 home sales by price

*Compiled from the Carolina Multiple Listing Service’s data.  Note that the numbers in this chart are generated by a technology expert I hired and not by me. The mapped perimeter of our Lake Norman area that he used for this chart’s numbers is slightly different from mine.

Lake Norman’s overall real estate market in the 2nd quarter of this year continued our strong pace that began in January, (With the exception of June.) However, there were some fascinating sub-trends within price-ranges in the past 3 months as you can see in above chart. By far the best way to truly understand our hot and cold niches is by analyzing our single family home sales by price-range which is why I create this chart each quarter.

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Lake Norman Real Estate Market Reports

Lake Norman Real Estate’s June 2019 Market Report

Lake Norman Real Estate's June 2019 Market Report

All data is from the Carolina Multiple Listing Service.

So, our lower pending sales numbers in Lake Norman last month did, in fact, result in a decline in closed sales in June, posting a 12% drop from June 2018’s and a 6.3% decline compared to last month’s. This was the first month in 2019 that our Lake Norman home sales were below last year’s. Despite this modest drop we are still 4.4% higher for the first 6 months of 2019 compared to 2018.  My numbers below should provide some deeper insight into where we are headed as well as details regarding this month’s sales.

Here are what I feel to be the biggest takeaways from June’s Lake Norman real estate sales data:

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Lake Norman Real Estate Market Reports

Lake Norman Real Estate’s May 2019 Market Report

Lake Norman real estate market report* All data is from the Carolina Multiple Listing Service.

Our Lake Norman’s real estate market posted record sales again in May with an impressive 12% gain over May 2018 and a 27% increase over last month’s. Wow! The first five months of 2019 stand out not only for their 9.3% total increase over 2018 but also for their consistency.  Each month exceeded last year’s and also increased over the prior month as well.  Consistency like this is very rare here in Lake Norman. It is even more interesting considering that this follows on the heels of a very a rough end to 2018.  My numbers below should provide some deeper insight into where we are headed as well as details regarding this month’s sales.

Here are what I feel to be the biggest takeaways from May’s Lake Norman real estate sales data:

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Lake Norman Real Estate Market Reports

Lake Norman Real Estate’s October Market Report

As predicted, Lake Norman’s real estate numbers for October continued their downturn for a second month in a row. We logged in a total of 150 home sales, a 14% drop when compared to last October but a 13.6% increase over last month’s. So, while disappointing, not nearly as severe a decline as we experienced in September. And, this was the 4th best October in since 2005. Was Hurricane Florence a factor? No matter what factors have contributed to our weakening housing market, there is clearly a downward trend that will continue through the end of this year.  Our low pending sales and new contracts’ numbers compared to last year are both down which substantiates this trend. My numbers below should provide some insight.

Here are what I feel to be the biggest takeaways from last month’s Lake Norman real estate sales data:

  • Our Lake Norman home sales were down for the second consecutive month and our year-to-date sales are down -2.6% compared to 2017.
  • Our inventory of active listings remains historically low, (44 fewer than last year), as they have been all year, never reaching our normal summer highs.  It is hard to quantify but there is no doubt that the low inventory does have a negative impact on our Lake Norman’s home sales.
  • Our pending sales and our newest contracts (UCS) are down which indicates a continuation of this slowdown for the rest of 2018.
  • Waterfront homes moved back into a buyers’ market.
  • I want to share with you again this great interactive calculator for determining rent vs. own costs from the New York Times!

Let’s take a closer look:

Lake Norman Real Estate Sales Analysis

All data is from the Carolina Multiple Listing Service.

Some significant additional statistics for you:

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Lake Norman Real Estate Market Reports

Lake Norman Real Estate’s August 2018 Market Report

Lake Norman’s real estate sales numbers for August were exceptional. We logged in a total of 232 home sales which beats last August’s 211 by 10% and they were 18.4% above last month’s.   After some ups and downs at the beginning of the year, the past four months have helped us to record 39 more sales in the first 8 months of this year compared to 2017’s record breaking year which is truly impressive and, quite honestly, unexpected by early national real estate projections. The million dollar question is can we sustain this level for the rest of 2018?  My numbers below will provide some insight into where we are headed for the next few months.

Here are what I feel to be the biggest takeaways from last month’s Lake Norman real estate sales data:

  • August’s closed sales were strong: 10% higher than last August’s, 18.4% greater than last month’s, the second highest month this entire year and the best August in Lake Norman’s history!
  • Our inventory of active listings continues to drop to alarmingly low numbers (a whopping 146 fewer than last year!) after never reaching our normal summer highs and yet we are still recording high sales.  It is hard to quantify but there is no doubt that the low inventory does have a negative impact on our Lake Norman’s home sales.
  • We are seeing some weaker pending sales which may be an indication of a slowdown at least for the next few months.
  • Waterfront homes moved back into a seller’s market.
  • I want to share with you again this great interactive calculator for determining rent vs. own costs from the New York Times!

Let’s take a closer look:

Lake Norman Real Estate's August 2018 Sales Analysis

All data is from the Carolina Multiple Listing Service.

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